Let me put this into perspective:
With EDL averaging 3h/day the average cost of industrial electricity will be 36c/kWh (5.6 in France, 6.7 in Denmark).
Also in comparison the avg EDL cost is 14c/kWh.
You can kiss the "productive economy" goodbye at these rates.

https://twitter.com/LBpresidency/status/1417063551194304517

No company can compete with 7 folds the cost of energy. No company in the world is supplied power through diesel based generation.
Result : cost of products will soar, most won't be able to afford them -> companies will fold or move out.

1/ The cash handout project of the government has been leaked.
In one word : Catastrophic .
It would destroy what remains of the manufacturing sector, barely dent the leakage of FX, effectively return to subsidizing imports and skyrocketing costs. 2/ First let's see how misleading the document is. It wants the reader to believe that the reduction in FX leak is around 4.24bn , but a look at the tables they produce shows the reduction to be 2.8bn (which they can achieve by simply reducing the current subsidies )

1/ A thread on subsidies and the unfortunate need for it until a total financial and economic restructuring has been completed. (Disclaimer: 40-tweet thread ahead) 2/ 17th of October 2019 , Lebanon witnesses the start of a revolution, people took to the streets to express their anger and frustration towards a political class they deemed corrupt and inept at governing.

1/ It is now quite clear that Iran will not allow the French initiative to bare its fruits. They firmly believe they can wait for the US elections after which they think they will negotiate with a new president and the Lebanese bargaining chip will be needed. 2/ To that effect, Hezbollah and Amal renegaded on their prior commitment to Macron and to the formation of an independent cabinet with a full rotation of ministries.

1/ Martin Luther King will excuse me for plagiarizing him, but one has to call upon the great leaders of our history to help when despair starts taking hold.

I have a dream ! 2/ I have a dream that one day the rule of law will be an evidence no one dares to challenge, everyone holds dear, and every generation inherits its awe of it from the previous one.

I have a dream today !

1/ I had promised a thread on neutrality and why i believe it is the cornerstone of any effort to rebuild the nation on a solid and sustainable footing, here we go 👇 2/ I am going to tackle it from 2 different angles, the first one would be purely tactical and is directly related to our current financial situation, while the second is much more strategic and involves a durable solution to our political problems

1/ A small thread on the exchange rate 👇 2/ Again with the basics: rate will be set by supply and demand. Any attempt to force the market will fail miserably, it is a simple reality. To curb the flying rate you either increase the supply by pumping dollars in the market or reduce the demand

1/ I have been postponing writing about the government plan for a little while, i think it is time to tackle it head on. I will try to keep it as simple as possible, my goal here is getting the message through to everyone not just the specialists. 2/ I will start with general thoughts.

The document has clearly been written by 2 distinct groups, and brought together haphazardly before it was published. The first section(well written) is financial/monetary , and the second(less so) is more economic.

1/ How can we stabilize the exchange rate ? First with the basics: when demand largely outpace the offer, no matter what you do, the rate will go up. No two ways about it. So we either reduce the demand or beef up the offer. 2/ Let's start with the offer side, since attracting deposits is thankfully neither possible nor desirable, we have to rely on exports, remittances and tourism. I have discussed the first one extensively, so let me tackle the other two.

1/ A small thread (this time i promise) , on the approach to dealing with COVID-19 on a country level. How we should proceed to prevent the lockdown from completely destroying our already frail economy. 2/ First a hats off to the gvt for , mostly, taking the right measures, however difficult that might have been to flatten the curve. It was done in a timely manner and kudos to them on assembling experts in committees to improve the response and plan for the next phase

1/ I will be posting threads addressing some of the ideas i outlined in my previous (admittedly long) alternative draft policy thread. The goal here is to start an in-depth discussion on the various aspects of a recovery plan. Starting with healthcare 👇 2/ First a disclaimer : i am neither a health care executive nor a MD, the ideas proposed are supposed to be a starter on the matter and i would hope professionals with skin in the game would weigh in.

1/ Everyone is feeling the effects of inflation,whether it affect our daily lives or our professional ones.
Is it a natural and justified phenomena considering the devaluation of the LBP in the exchange markets, or are there other factors ? A thread 👇 2/ First we'll tackle imported goods, since those are paid for with foreign currencies and the inflation on those items have been substantial

1/ So now that we got the draft Policy Statement released, here is an overview on what i would have expected to see in a proper Policy draft. ( i am sorry if there are too many numbers, i know it makes gvt uneasy and they prefer poetry) 👇 2/ I won't delve too much in the non-economic aspect (at least not at this point), but regarding corruption and the judicial system :
Immediate passing of the laws that separates the judicial system from the executive branch BEFORE any further appointments, and task the…

1/ As promised, here goes the thread on Apples in #Lebanon @dan_azzi @Jessica_Obeid . I took interest in the whole matter a couple of years ago challenged by a position paper written by Dr Fadi Gemayel (currently head of @alindustrialist ) @dan_azzi @Jessica_Obeid @alindustrialist 2/ First some historical background, the Apple has been traditionally grown in the mountains of #Lebanon and at relatively high altitude. The varieties grown were akin fully grown oak trees and most of the production would be handpicked using tall ladders.

@AzarsTweets, as promised, a thread on exports and potential growth on that front 👇 1/ First, let me highlight some facts : leading up to 2015 we had reached $4.6 bn in real exports (the numbers coming from the customs are misleading, they include scrap and a very interesting $600mn in gold we sell to South Africa) 2/