1. $PM rprtd btr thn expctd earnings with a rebound in vol. in June.
I blv $PM has 20%+ TSR ovr nxt 12 mnths with a clear catalyst in form of buyback initiation.
$PM trades at a discount rltive to mkt & its own history. Refer to the thread for my bull thesis on $PM.
I blv $PM has 20%+ TSR ovr nxt 12 mnths with a clear catalyst in form of buyback initiation.
$PM trades at a discount rltive to mkt & its own history. Refer to the thread for my bull thesis on $PM.
2. It is #IQOS - a product 95% less harmful thn cigs, which is 25% of revs.
Regulators love #IQOS & provide favrble tax trtmnt 2 #IQOS – bcz of which #IQOS is ~20% chpr thn Marlboro.
#IQOS hs monopoly in mst mkts with $BAT, $IMB & $JTI struggling to gt their version of IQOS.
Regulators love #IQOS & provide favrble tax trtmnt 2 #IQOS – bcz of which #IQOS is ~20% chpr thn Marlboro.
#IQOS hs monopoly in mst mkts with $BAT, $IMB & $JTI struggling to gt their version of IQOS.
3. Imprvmng FCF as #iQOS invstmnts stabilize.
$PM invstd bn of $ in mkting/educating regulators & cstmrs on #iQOS. As #iQOS reach a critical mass, $PM is driving dwn CAC by 25%.
EBITDA to FCF convrsn fell blw 70% - which will rcvr to 75%+ as CAPEX hs bn normalizing.
$PM invstd bn of $ in mkting/educating regulators & cstmrs on #iQOS. As #iQOS reach a critical mass, $PM is driving dwn CAC by 25%.
EBITDA to FCF convrsn fell blw 70% - which will rcvr to 75%+ as CAPEX hs bn normalizing.
4. $PM can grow EPS at HSD rt. FY20 wl b a drag due to lockdowns in EMs but things shld rcvr to a long run algo in FY21.
Mgmt hs a trgt leverage lvl of < 2.0x, with lvrg alrdy ~2x, buybck initiation is likely in FY21 (mgmt cmntd on ths during CAGNY conf. 2020).
Mgmt hs a trgt leverage lvl of < 2.0x, with lvrg alrdy ~2x, buybck initiation is likely in FY21 (mgmt cmntd on ths during CAGNY conf. 2020).
5. $PM is 20% blw its pre-pandemic lvl & hs a 6% dividend yld. Div. cn b funded thru FCF.
$PM shld re-rt 2 its mn NTM EV/EBITDA of 12.5x (lst 3yr avg.)
$PM is immuned 4m US regulations tht hv bn an ovrhng on multiples of $MO, $BAT, $IMB & has the bst mgmt team in industry.
$PM shld re-rt 2 its mn NTM EV/EBITDA of 12.5x (lst 3yr avg.)
$PM is immuned 4m US regulations tht hv bn an ovrhng on multiples of $MO, $BAT, $IMB & has the bst mgmt team in industry.
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