Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Jul 22, 2020 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/n
Yesterday @teri released a new report on the grid integration of wind and solar in India.
This thread summarizes some of the findings, but there is a lot more available in the report and results data, which is freely available for download (links at the end of this thread!)
2/n
We used a unit commitment and dispatch model to study the operation of the power system:
- all generating units in India
- 8760 hours of the year (and 15 min blocks for some periods).
- all states with unique demand and supply profiles
- 7 unique scenarios & 4 sensitivities
3/n
In all scenarios, the model could meet demand with negligible levels of unserved load, and acceptable levels of curtailment.👇
Wind and solar curtailment peaked at 4% in the High Renewables Scenario, without additional flexibility measures. Image
4/n
Existing hydro and coal provide supply-side flexibility. The aggregate coal PLF is 57-65% depending on the scenario, but it shifts from baseload to load following.
In some scenarios the coal fleet has to be aggressively cycled, incl 16 GW on two-shifting operations 👇 Image
5/n
A part of the coal fleet never starts even in scenarios that rely most heavily on coal as a balancing resource.
These are older, high marginal cost plants, with high heat rates and transport costs. The results show these can be closed w/o compromising security of supply.👇 Image
6/n
Although scenarios w/o storage can also integrate wind and solar, storage provides several benefits: reduced curtailment, reduced coal fleet cycling and starts, and lower dispatch of high marginal cost plant.
Storage charges at high solar hours, and supports evening peak.👇 Image
7/n
A major benefit is reduced coal fleet starts, seen 👇 which shows April operations for the 20 most aggressively cycled units in the High Renewables Scenario with and without Storage.
In the scenario with storage, starts and stops are reduced, as is ramping. Image
8/n
The transmission system provides substantial flexibility. On the highest RE injection hour, ~40% of power consumed crosses a state border.
Power flows vary in magnitude and direction depending on season and time of day; coordinating these flows is a major challenge ahead. Image
9/n
33% wind and solar in total generation, 47% zero c with large hydro and nukes, can be integrated at no extra system cost 👇. The higher fixed cost of the High Renewable Energy scenario is compensated by lower variable cost.
Total zero c capacity is 66%, way above the NDC. Image
10/n
Report available here: teriin.org/sites/default/…
All results free for visualization & download here: teriin.org/etctool/
Big congrats to my co-authors: @Raghavpachouri, @shubh0411, @Neshwin13 , Renjith.

Big thanks @nworbmot who wrote the original model.
#Freethemodels

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More from @ThomasASpencer

Mar 1
Today we published our estimate of CO2 emissions in 2023. The bad news is that they rose again, by 1.1%.

The good news is that there are lots of causes for optimism if you look underneath the headline numbers.

A quick 🧵

iea.org/reports/co2-em…
Clean energy technologies grew strongly in 2023. Solar PV, driven by China, grew 420 GW and wind around 120 GW.

That's another ~550 TWh of clean electricity coming online this year (a lot of this capacity came online at the end of 2023, and will only be felt fully in 2024) Image
Extreme weather, notably very bad droughts, and continued Covid reopening in the aviation sector and China's transport sector drove around 70% of the increase in emissions at the global level. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
1/n
Today the @IEA released a special report on the role of coal in net zero transitions. With this thread I want to highlight some of the key findings of the report.
Thread
iea.org/news/achieving…
2/n
Firstly, energy transitions are not and cannot be just about coal. In the central scenario in our report, advanced economies act strongly this decade already on emissions from oil and gas, as well as coal.
3/n
But for three reasons, we need to focus on coal:
1.It’s the largest source of CO2, and far from declining
2.It’s increasingly under pressure in electricity
3.Coal is important for local jobs and development
So what are the key messages?
Read 9 tweets
Dec 28, 2021
1/10
Back in India, back reading about India.
It's time for another 10 tweet review.

Book: Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India

Author: Rukmini S. @Rukmini
2/10
Firstly, this book gets an A-plus for the pun (visual and titular) that you get right from the cover.

@Rukmini is a data journalist from Chennai, one of the field's Indian pioneers and a leading voice in interpreting India's covid experience.
3/10
Her book brings together four key characteristics of a good data journalist.
First, she has a sensitivity to the importance of the process of data production. A fascinating description of how all is not what it seems in data on sexual assualt is a case in point.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 23, 2021
1/n Today we published a model-based assessment of the grid integration costs of VRE.
Note: we only look at profile and balancing costs, not network costs.
Here I summarize the results in 6 easy tweets.
2/n
In all scenarios we study, a short-term 'optimal' level of VRE is substantially higher than current levels, in the order of 40% of total generation.
This is robust to assumptions on demand, storage cost, cost of capital, retirement of end of life assets, etc.
3/n
The substitution of expensive energy with cheap VRE allows total system costs to decline as we approach 'optimal VRE', even as total system-wide fixed costs go up.
Basic point: cheap energy + expensive capacity is a winning combination for substantially higher VRE.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 4, 2021
1/n
We ended 2020 with the news that India's power demand cross 180 GW for the first time. Unusually, this occurred in December, when power demand usually peaks is in summer?

What is going on here? Is it sign of the economic recovery?

Short thread.
2/n
Firstly, as I have been repeating, we need to look carefully at both base effect and time period when looking at demand growth.

Monthly demand smooths out daily fluctuations, and comparing 2020 against both 2019 and 2018 shows the importance of the base effect. 👇 Image
3/n
Compared against 2018, 2020 monthly demand has registered only a few months of growth since the lockdown effectively ended in June.

Because of the collapse in demand in the second half of 2019, the picture looks more optimistic if we compare against 2019 (low base effect)
Read 9 tweets
Dec 21, 2020
1/n
Last week TERI released its flagship report on the prospects for H2 in India.

The full report is here. bit.ly/3poYA2n

At 140 pages, I can't summarize the whole thing in a single thread, but I can do a series of threads.

Today's: H2 in the Indian power sector.
2/n
We do a bottom up assessment to 2050 of power demand across all sectors, including direct and indirect electrification (for electrolytic H2 production).

In the low carbon scenario, power demand reaches as much as 6200 TWh by 2050, with almost 1000 TWh of that for H2. 👇
3/n
This would consume a very substantial chunk of India's maximum estimated technical potential for onshore wind and solar PV. 👇
The required rate of supply growth and land footprint may be challenging!

This reinforces the message: direct electrification wherever possible.
Read 12 tweets

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