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Taniel Profile picture
@Taniel
Jul 22, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Major news today: Progressive challenger Emily Gallagher ousted Joe Lentol, who's been in New York's Assembly since 1974 (!!!), in the June Dem primary.

Here's a profile of Gallagher from December: "“I try to choose battles that are activist battles." brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/…
This comes just a few days after the news of the win by Marcela Mitaynes over another longtime incumbent, Félix Ortiz, also in Brooklyn (#AD51.)

Mitaynes is a "tenant organizer and Sunset Park community activist" who was endorsed by DSA, & by AOC.
brooklynpaper.com/breaking-democ…
AND a third recent call: Jessica González-Rojas, a progressive challenger backed by the WFP, has ousted Assemblymember Michael DenDekker, in a district in Queens (#AD34).

Here's a profile of her work asking for a rent freeze & protections in April: vogue.com/article/jessic…
4️⃣th in this series of left wins in NYC: Khaleel Anderson, a 24-year old community organizer backed by the WFP, has prevailed in Southeast Queens. (His runner-up in this crowded open race was endorsed by Queens Dem Party.)

A profile from November: qns.com/story/2019/11/…
Time for a 5️⃣th win for the left in a NY election: Zohran Mamdani, a housing advocate backed by DSA, has ousted an incumbent Assemblymember in Astoria in the June Democratic primary (confirmed today).

A profile from June: qchron.com/editions/queen…

Result: queenseagle.com/all/dsa-backed…

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
Dec 2
Moment of instability today again in France (not that the crisis ever stopped since Macron called snap elections), which may lead the new conservative government to fall. That'd pretty much leave the country in uncharted territory, again.

Quick thread to explain:
1. The (unnecessary) July snap elections resulted in a wildly fragmented Assembly — as you'll know well if you were following me.

The Left coalition got roughly 190 seats. The Macronist parties got roughly 170. The far-right (RN) got roughly 140. Conservatives got roughly 40.
2. In French, coalition that controls the Assembly gets to be Prime Minister — & effectively govern the country with little input from the president (if the PM + president are in different camps).

But no election in current regime had never resulted in such a fragmented chamber.
Read 10 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 22
Pam Bondi was Florida's attorney general during Trump's first campaign & some of his first first term—and that generated plenty of stories on her legal decisions.

Here's just a slice of what you should know, featuring great reporting from the mid-2010s:
1—As Florida AG, Bondi nixed suing Trump over Trump U after she solicited a contribution from him & he gave $25,000: floridapolitics.com/archives/21237…Image
2—Bondi's office justified nixing Trump U suit by saying she'd only receiving only one customer complaint, but the AP found this: jacksonville.com/story/news/201…Image
Read 8 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 4
these are getting underplayed this year, but the rules of democracy are *directly* on the ballot in many places

here, quickly, is my top 5 referendums on that
1️⃣ Arizona organizers worked hard to put an abortion rights measure on November's ballot.

But the GOP made its move too: They've put a separate referendum on the ballot.

It'd basically shut the door on future ballot initiatives in Arizona. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
2️⃣ Connecticut, somehow, still requires an excuse for people to vote absentee.

A ballot measure this November will open the door to finally allowing everyone to vote by mail.

And this'll be particularly major for people with disabilities:

boltsmag.org/connecticut-ba…
Read 7 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 3
Abortion is big in the presidential race, of course, & there are many referendums on it.

But there's more: there are many races that are too overlooked where abortion rights is a key issue, for downballot offices that really matter to abortion policy.

My thread of the top 5: ⬇️
1️⃣ I have to start with Arizona's judicial elections.

Two things simultaneously:
1. Two of the 4 justices who voted to revive a near-total abortion ban this spring are up for retention.
2. GOP has advanced a measure to nullify these judicial elections. boltsmag.org/proposition-13…
2️⃣ DeSantis removed Tampa's elected prosecutor from office, citing in part the prosecutor's decision to sign a letter saying he wouldn't prosecute abortion. cases. (DeSantis has signed strict restrictions.)

That prosecutor is now running for his job back: boltsmag.org/hillsborough-c…
Read 8 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 2
Here's the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris is up 47% to 44%. 
(Not a typo. Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.)
In 2016 & 2020, Selzer’s final poll looked like an outlier in opposite direction; days after, we learned it was actually not off, & had foreshadowed polling error in Rust Belt.

This, again, is just one poll; we’ll see soon enough whether it captured something no one else did.
Other details in poll:
—Poll was this Monday through Thursday.
—Margin is within MoE of 3.4%, of course (though this is a looooot more off from expectations).
—Harris up 28% among independent women, though Trump up among men.
—RFK at 3%

Link to the poll: desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 2
Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)
Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.
But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.
Read 4 tweets

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