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Taniel Profile picture
Taniel
@Taniel
Daniel Nichanian. Editor-in-chief and founder of @BoltsMag. (Follow us!) Local politics & elections, criminal justice, voting rights, and drag race.
11 subscribers
Dec 2 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Moment of instability today again in France (not that the crisis ever stopped since Macron called snap elections), which may lead the new conservative government to fall. That'd pretty much leave the country in uncharted territory, again.

Quick thread to explain: 1. The (unnecessary) July snap elections resulted in a wildly fragmented Assembly — as you'll know well if you were following me.

The Left coalition got roughly 190 seats. The Macronist parties got roughly 170. The far-right (RN) got roughly 140. Conservatives got roughly 40.
Nov 22 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Pam Bondi was Florida's attorney general during Trump's first campaign & some of his first first term—and that generated plenty of stories on her legal decisions.

Here's just a slice of what you should know, featuring great reporting from the mid-2010s: 1—As Florida AG, Bondi nixed suing Trump over Trump U after she solicited a contribution from him & he gave $25,000: floridapolitics.com/archives/21237…Image
Nov 4 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
these are getting underplayed this year, but the rules of democracy are *directly* on the ballot in many places

here, quickly, is my top 5 referendums on that 1️⃣ Arizona organizers worked hard to put an abortion rights measure on November's ballot.

But the GOP made its move too: They've put a separate referendum on the ballot.

It'd basically shut the door on future ballot initiatives in Arizona. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
Nov 3 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Abortion is big in the presidential race, of course, & there are many referendums on it.

But there's more: there are many races that are too overlooked where abortion rights is a key issue, for downballot offices that really matter to abortion policy.

My thread of the top 5: ⬇️ 1️⃣ I have to start with Arizona's judicial elections.

Two things simultaneously:
1. Two of the 4 justices who voted to revive a near-total abortion ban this spring are up for retention.
2. GOP has advanced a measure to nullify these judicial elections. boltsmag.org/proposition-13…
Nov 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here's the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris is up 47% to 44%. 
(Not a typo. Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.) In 2016 & 2020, Selzer’s final poll looked like an outlier in opposite direction; days after, we learned it was actually not off, & had foreshadowed polling error in Rust Belt.

This, again, is just one poll; we’ll see soon enough whether it captured something no one else did.
Nov 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3) Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.
Oct 25 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
I think Arizona's elections may be the single most important rn — even putting aside the presidential election.

The amount of items on the ballot that could transform state politics, upend the election systems, as well as criminal justice and courts, is remarkable. Here's why. Let's start with: Democrats have a chance to take control of the state government by flipping two seats each in the Senate & the House. That'd be the first time they do that since *1966*.

If you've followed MI and MN politics recently, you know a new trifecta can get very busy.
Oct 14 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Politico releases a memo of *internal GOP polling* for a chief Senate SuperPAC conducted in October.

It has some interesting trendlines & results for both pres & Senate. (May have not been intentional release?) …

Walking thru some highlights:politico.com/news/2024/10/1… —Arizona:
Pres race tied 47/47 in Oct (Trump led in Sept.)
Gallego up 47/42.

—Maryland:
This GOP poll has Hogan now *down* 48/41, after leading 49/41 in September.

—Michigan:
Harris up 45/42, and Slotkin up 46/38.
(In both cases, Dems better than two September polls.)
Sep 5 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
JUST IN: France has a new Prime Minister.

Macron chose Michel Barnier, a conservative politician from the LR party.

This makes explicit the long-tacit alliance between Macronists + conservatives. *And* Macron is choosing someone he thinks the far-right (RN) won't bring down. Step-back: Left coalition (NFP) won most seats on July 7 (roughly 190). But a priority for Macron was to avoid NFP governing.

Barnier's LR (right) have roughly 40 seats. Macronists only have roughly 170. Even combined, that's far from the majority of 277.

RN has 140.
Aug 30 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
This month was maybe the best stretch of content since we launched @boltsmag 2 years ago.

I'm really proud of all of these stories, & how they're bringing so many different facets of local politics, and their high stakes on criminal justice & voting rights, to life! ↓ Image 1. Arizona voters face major choices in November, on whether election deniers will take over some of the most important election offices in the state — nay, in the country.

@alex_burness laid it all out: boltsmag.org/maricopa-count…
Aug 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls (RVs here):

Wisconsin: Harris 52/44
Pennsylvania: Harris 51/47
Nevada: Harris 49/45
Michigan: Harris 49/46
[that's 270+]
Georgia: Harris 49/47
North Carolina: Harris 49/47
Arizona: 48/48 The article only gives the margins among likely voters, take or remove one point depending on the state, but not the numbers in an easy way. (link via @JoshuaGreen) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Aug 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Political situation in France is fairly jaw-dropping.

1. Elections were 7 weeks ago, & in France transition is quick. But still no new government, & it's not just bc there's no solution: Macron stalled, then announced a bizarre "Olympic truce," & is now stalling again. 2. The PM + Cabinet resigned promptly... but remain in office. There's something called "regime of ordinary affairs" in France, where a resigning Cabinet just does routine stuff. But this has been longest such regime ever in France. & resigned Cabinet working on next budget.
Aug 25 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Things remain stalled in France since July 7th elections.

Those saw Macron's party lose roughly 100 seats, & so any semblance of majority or plurality. And yet his outgoing cabinet remains in office despite ostensibly resigning in July.

But things moving more quickly now. ⬇️ No bloc or coalition got ANYTHING near a majority (277). An unprecedented situation in this institutional regime.

Left coalition (NFP), you'll recall, won most seats on July 7—around 190.

Macronists ≈170. Far-right ≈ 140. Conservatives ≈40.
Aug 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BFD: Arizona officials announce that an abortion rights measure, the Arizona Abortion Acess Act, *will* be on the November ballot.

It would enshrine abortion rights in the constitution.

If you care about this measure—here are 3 more related AZ elections you must know about. ⬇️ 1️⃣ Remember when the Arizona Supreme Court revived a 19th century abortion ban earlier this year?

Two of the justices who participated in that decision are up for retention this fall.

boltsmag.org/your-state-by-…
Aug 7 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
There was a big election night yesterday with many interesting results—but a wild amount has happened this week, so I can't blame you if you've missed them.

So let me walk you through them with a quick thread: ⬇️ 1️⃣ in Kansas, a Dem lawmaker was ousted in the Dem primary after providing the GOP the decisive vote on a anti-trans bill, and a lot else.

more in my thread:
Aug 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
RESULT: Marvin Robinson, a Dem state Rep. in Kansas, was just *ousted* by voters in his Dem primary.

Who is Robinson? He provided Kansas Republicans the decisive vote to override the Dem governor's veto, and pass an anti-trans bill into law. Robinson also voted for abortion restrictions & against Medicaid expansion.

The winner is Wanda Brownlee Paige, a retired teacher.

She said: "You lied to us. You told us you were a Democrat." kansascity.com/news/politics-…
Jul 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Today is Arizona’s primary! And it really is far-right fest.

Arpaio, Lake, Masters, and many more, are bidding for comebacks.

Here are some of the top primaries you should be watching. ⬇️ 1. The senate race! Two years after she lost the governor’s race and refused to concede, Kari Lake wants to replace Sinema. Her opponent is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, also known for fanning unfounded conspiracies and nativism. ()boltsmag.org/arizona-sherif…
Jul 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
France's hyper-fragmented Assembly has been voting all day for its new leadership, & finished choosing its 'secretaries' at 4-5am. I'm not quite sure how but Left coalition won 10 of the 12 final spots, giving it an out-of-nowhere majority in chamber's overall leadership council. Since France entered its latest constitutional structure in 1958, nothing like what's unfolding now has ever happened—there's never been a situation where a bloc hasn't effectively controlled proceedings (even in rare hung parliaments). So IMO no one really knows what's going on.
Jul 7 • 44 tweets • 14 min read
JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:

—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.

Follow this 🧵 for results and more: Image 2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.

This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc as well. Still, a big drop for them from outgoing Assembly (250, enough for governing with plurality). Image
Jul 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵: Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Jul 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Details reported in piece for those who can’t read it

—Macron’s team mostly shrugged off results on Sunday. They started celebrating a birthday as returned still coming in
—He didn’t bother watching as Prime Minister, Attal, gave forceful speech calling to block far-right.
(1/?) —Attal began calling Macronist candidate who came in 3rd but made runoff, asking them to drop out to consolidate vs far-right.

—Attal surprised to realize Macron was calling some in parallel, asking them to NOT drop out. This would risk RN wins.

(We have other confirmation:)