My interpretation of the latest significant scientific studies out in the last 24 hours or so.
Coming here soon.
Coming here soon.
In the meantime, the best interpretation science you will hear is from Larry Brilliant here.
Smarturl.it/inthebubble
Smarturl.it/inthebubble
First, the CDC released data on the large number of asymptomatic & unreported cases.
Unclear how much of this is asymptomatic vs. mild cases where people don’t bother to get tested given lack of availability.
Unclear how much of this is asymptomatic vs. mild cases where people don’t bother to get tested given lack of availability.
In low testing areas, what Trump has been seeking is happening. Low testing & lower results. Missouri has 13x the number of reported cases.
Other states that have done a better job are lower but still have 2-3x at minimum.
Other states that have done a better job are lower but still have 2-3x at minimum.
What are the implications:
-Population immunity? Highest would be NY (25%) vs Utah, MSP, SF, Philly (all 1-2%)
-This is a long way from the 60-80% necessary to reach herd immunity
-The virus is impossible to control without testing & masks
-Population immunity? Highest would be NY (25%) vs Utah, MSP, SF, Philly (all 1-2%)
-This is a long way from the 60-80% necessary to reach herd immunity
-The virus is impossible to control without testing & masks
What do we do with this information?
-Rapidly increase testing of asymptomatic people. We can’t wait this long as this is how things spread rapidly. We are way short. We need rapid saliva tests.
-Thinking we can “protect” nursing homes w this type of circulation is very hard
-Rapidly increase testing of asymptomatic people. We can’t wait this long as this is how things spread rapidly. We are way short. We need rapid saliva tests.
-Thinking we can “protect” nursing homes w this type of circulation is very hard
-Herd immunity was never a good strategy & this shows why. If infecting 10% of the population causes the loss of 140,000 people, even if we cut the death rate in 1/2, 350,000 lives would be lost on the way to 60% immunity.
This leads to the second scientific study which shows the length of antibodies appears to be 4.5 months at best case. Lower with asymptomatic or mild cases.
-This doesn’t necessarily mean achieving immunity is futile depending on T cell reaction.
-Shorter immunity than than SARS
-This doesn’t necessarily mean achieving immunity is futile depending on T cell reaction.
-Shorter immunity than than SARS
Two new studies show positive results from vaccine trials.
Here what you need to know about vaccines from this very recent interview w former FDA head McClellan & researcher David Agus.
Smarturl.it/inthebubble
Here what you need to know about vaccines from this very recent interview w former FDA head McClellan & researcher David Agus.
Smarturl.it/inthebubble
