Thread by @nytimes

President Trump has said the growing number of coronavirus cases is due to increased testing. But our analysis shows the rise in cases far outpaces the growth in testing.

Testing has grown 80% since early June. Daily case counts have grown 215%. nyti.ms/30E1TYp

In early June, about 21,000 coronavirus cases were reported per day in the U.S. when the positive test rate was 4.8%. nyti.ms/30E1TYp

As more people were tested, the positive test rate should have fallen. Even if it had stayed the same, there would have been about 38,000 cases reported today. nyti.ms/30E1TYp

Instead, the positive test rate has nearly doubled, to over 8%.

And cases each day have grown from 21,000 to 66,000 — a significant jump over the 38,000 positive tests that would be expected per day. nyti.ms/30E1TYp

31 states show an increase in cases beyond what is expected from expanded testing. The largest discrepancies are in Florida, Texas and California.

Florida is reporting more than 11,000 new cases a day. About 2,400 cases a day would be expected because of increased testing.

As tests become more widely available and more people who are not sick take them, positive test rates should fall.

But the U.S. is seeing the opposite: More tests are being conducted but more are coming back positive, suggesting the outbreak is getting worse.

The positive test rate is now 8% across the U.S., up from a low of less than 5% in June. That growth suggests the rising number of cases can’t be explained by testing alone.

See our full analysis of how the rise in cases outpaces the growth in testing. nyti.ms/30E1TYp