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He was worried that population would increase faster than tech could support it.
We think of him as wrong today thx to agriculture and other tech, but that's not all.
After all, population can grow 3% a year, doubling every 25 yrs. Gotta be something else.
Positive checks are things that kill people (e.g. war, famine, disease)
Negative checks are things that slow birth rate (e.g. when people get poorer, they tend to marry less and have less kids)
There's another process involved that leads to extended downswings: Elite Overproduction
Backing up: When there are too many people, food is scarce, but jobs too, causing wages to fall
When elites are better off, they are likely to marry earlier & have bigger families
So when ordinary people are struggling due to overpopulation, the elite is booming.
The problem w/ this expansion of the elite is that society only has room for a certain amount.
As the elite expands, there's growing pressure to find roles for them, so that they can keep their lifestyles.
And that of course costs money because they need salaries sufficient to support elite lifestyles.
A huge increase in # of elites means huge increase in govt expenses to fill these roles.
Many elites lose out on $ & status they expected to get, making them very angry and leading them to turn on each other in intra-elite conflict
In the old days when most of the elite youth could expect to inherit their parents wealth & status, they didn't bother to go to university.
But w/ over-expansion, they now fight for credentials to separate them.
The American Dream is another way, the idea that anyone can earn their way to the elite.
Globalization amplifies this significantly.
The internet even more so. Now the whole world is competing to be an elite.
The elite control the army, so they can keep down the masses.
Revolutions occur when there's intra elite competition.
Leading to a counter elite, who, feeling entitled to $ they won't get, want to ensure others won't either.
1- Mass mobilization potential (food shortages and falling wages)
2- Elite mobilization potential (over-expansion and competition for status)
3- State fiscal distress
As state needs to spend more on elite, it has a hard time raising taxes b/c poor are also needy.
It can't afford to keep the elite happy and alleviate hunger and suppress unrest, and these problems of funding the state contribute to its collapse.
Population expands until it reaches the Malthusian limit.
This means wages fall & labor is cheap, which leads to high mass mobilization potential.
Overpopulation also leads to elite over-expansion and thus intra-elite competition.
It ends in breakdown & population collapse, taking you back to underpopulation & small elite
Structural Demographic Theory used to take 2 centuries, but now takes 150 years, which means U.S. is getting pretty close to political breakdown & social calamity.
Isn't it a problem that rich people (& everyone) are having too *few* kids?
The bigger problem is that productivity growth isn't rising enough to support their growth relative to overall population growth.
Compare that w/ how in 50 yrs you went from the first powered aircraft to a global airline industry, already carrying 10s of millions of ppl a year.
In UK since 1990, population increased by 15%, but the # of students increased by almost 100%.
in 1990, American Law school grads had even distribution of salaries, but by 2000 there was a separation into winners & losers.
They consider themselves entitled to elite privileges, but the state can't absorb them.
And since they seem destined to remain outside privilege, oppose it: If they can't be a part of it, they want to destroy it.
Either a positive check (increase in death rate) and/or a negative check (decrease in birth rate)
One solution is economic growth: