1/17 What a week. Broader recognition of how serious the US failure is. Not enough action on what needs to get done. The virus has the upper hand and won’t stop until we stop it. We won’t stop it until we focus better on the most important data. bit.ly/3fXHhkh
2/17 Misleading to focus on case counts. Probably more than 25 million Americans infected already, tho we don’t know for sure. Test positivity rates are instructive, and deeply concerning. Other than the NE, the country is awash in virus, but the increase is ebbing in some areas.
3/17 We are THESE not THE United States. Overall positivity rates declined, but increased in many states. Clinical (mostly hospital) and commercial positivity rates decreased; public health lab positivity rates increased.
4/17 Lab data are intricate. Positivity increasing in public health labs. Gray line: rapid increase in 5-17 year-olds but encouragingly blunted increase in 65+, with less blunting in younger adults. 
5/17 Clinical labs, which don’t provide data by age group, showed a decrease.
6/17 Commercial labs 2.5M tests/week, half the total, but results very delayed and of little utility. They charge but the public doesn’t benefit. Tests performed/day is a very misleading indicator. Generally encouraging positivity trends, with decreases in all age groups.
7/17 ILI and CLI data suggest that infection rates may be stabilizing or decreasing in many areas. This wave overall appears to have crested, but is different in different parts of the country.
8/17 Rates by race/ethnicity/week important to target interventions. Great e.g. from Travis County, TX. and King County, WA. NO reason every state and county can’t report this information so we can understand and address racial/ethnic disparities better. bit.ly/2ZXRurx
9/17 HHS Protect is providing public information. With mandated reporting to get Remdesivir (which could have done when data was flowing to CDC) reporting increasing. One indicator from RTSL list of 15 essentials. Bad news in all the South: >10% is high. bit.ly/3hzXrAZ
10/17 The percent of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 increased from June 27–July 11 for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and is lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); remains above the epidemic threshold.
11/17 Great to see progress masking up, but that’s not enough. No one intervention, not even a vaccine, will make Covid go away. We need a comprehensive, data-driven response.
12/17 Schools top of mind. Risk to staff, vulnerable household members, risk from older kids all must be considered. Anyone can open schools. Keeping them open is the hard part. Reality: we need to try, carefully, and learn as we go. Learning/schools - what a novel idea.
13/17 Explore great site, with Resolve essential indicators. We need a clear view of the pollen-count equivalent for every county: is it raining Covid around me? How well is my community doing protecting people from it? Few states ready to open schools. bit.ly/3eVJdsl
14/17 I’ve given more than 1,000 interviews and written more than 50 articles since January, and this may be the most important. We need to get on the same page about essential indicators of risk and response. Transparency and accountability and progress. bit.ly/2EacKSm
15/17 Global death rates march onward, sadly. Latin America is getting hit hard. Total deaths per million
Belgium 846
United Kingdom 670
Spain 608
Italy 580
Sweden 561
France 462
Chile 456
United States 433
Peru 418
Brazil 389
Netherlands 358
Ireland 355
Mexico 319
Ecuador 307
Belgium 846
United Kingdom 670
Spain 608
Italy 580
Sweden 561
France 462
Chile 456
United States 433
Peru 418
Brazil 389
Netherlands 358
Ireland 355
Mexico 319
Ecuador 307
16/17 US deaths likely to pass Sweden in the coming months, but don’t trust estimates more than 4 weeks out. We may see a crest in deaths, then a decline. Don’t count on it. It depends on us. We control what the virus does, and if we don’t act, the virus will control us.
17/End. We’ll only reopen and keep schools open if we unite to fight the virus while keeping physically distant. We’ll only regain economic momentum if we stop the virus’ momentum. We’ll save the most lives if we drive progress through data, science and open communication.
