I think the decision to abruptly reverse the air corridor to Spain will be another turning point for trust in the government. It seems strange to draw a parallel with Dominic Cummings, but at a psychological level, these issues are related. 1/10
2/10 Behavioural scientists talked about the issue of equity at the time of the Barnard Castle affair. We obey the rules because we believe - perhaps naively - that they apply equally to everyone. When it's clear they don't, we feel anger and resentment. Trust has broken down.
3/10 A slightly different thing is happening with the quarantine rules, but it's clearly connected. People flew out to Spain having been told they *wouldn't* have to self-isolate on return. They are now being told that the goalposts have shifted and will resent it.
4/10 I imagine that a proportion of people returning will comply with self-isolation - perhaps if their work colleagues know they have just been to Spain and they need to return to a shop or office. But I also think a significant proportion won't.
5/10 They will figure: 'They never told me I would have to do this. It's unfair. It seemed ok when I was out there. The Spanish made people wear masks. There was sanitiser. It was fine. And no one will know.'
6/10 People thinking about booking a holiday - and this is where, of course, the travel industry is having kittens - will now have second and third thoughts. Spain will be worst hit, but who's to say France won't be next? So best not book.
7/10 My first planned trip abroad is to France in three months, for work. But I'm already thinking that this is going to be a nightmare in terms of insurance and uncertainty over quarantine arrangements. And that's leaving aside actual concerns over contracting corona.
8/10 Of course, it may be completely responsible for the government to say that Spain is seen as hotspot and we could end up repeating the cycle we saw with skiers returning from Italy earlier in the pandemic. I'm not disputing the decision on grounds of public health.
9/10 But note the lackadaisical approach to the introduction of face masks in shops in England, which could just wait and wait. And then compare it the five hours' notice given to holidaymakers. People are thinking 'eh?' Where's the logic? Where's the consistency?
10/10 Wouldn't it have been so much better if the government had told people that summer holidays were off this year? As a certain Grant Shapps once did. Something for him to contemplate as he cancels all his top-level engagements for a fortnight.
