We have a solution to COVID-19
Inexpensive, fast, easy, frequent, but less-sensitive tests beat expensive, slow, difficult, infrequent, but more-sensitive tests.
We have the capability NOW
@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam
microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/
Inexpensive, fast, easy, frequent, but less-sensitive tests beat expensive, slow, difficult, infrequent, but more-sensitive tests.
We have the capability NOW
@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam
microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/
$1 tests, printed on paper that you lick, that give immediate results.
This test is cheap and easy enough to test EVERYBODY, EVERY DAY.
We can test school children at the beginning of the day, employees as they come to work, restaurant patrons before ordering, etc. etc.
This test is cheap and easy enough to test EVERYBODY, EVERY DAY.
We can test school children at the beginning of the day, employees as they come to work, restaurant patrons before ordering, etc. etc.
Because viral load in the body increases exponentially by the hour, there's a gap of only a few hours when you are infectious but test negative.
If you have covid, and the test doesn't catch you today, it will catch you tomorrow. Or when you go out to eat.
This will work
If you have covid, and the test doesn't catch you today, it will catch you tomorrow. Or when you go out to eat.
This will work
The paper:
"These results demonstrate that effective surveillance, including time to first detection and outbreak control, depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity."
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
"These results demonstrate that effective surveillance, including time to first detection and outbreak control, depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity."
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
This video covers the same territory as the original one above, but is a lot shorter:
