Thread by @PausaFutbol

Real Madrid and the lack of a volume shooter

Real Madrid have won the league in the 19/20 season thanks to their rock solid defence but their goal scoring and shooting stats have seen a dip. We take a deeper look at this.

[A Thread]

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Reduction in shot volume:

Real Madrid’s shots p90 in the league in the last 4 seasons

16/17: 17.42
17/18: 18.58 (1st in Europe)
18/19: 15.24
19/20: 15.5

Madrid have been a volume shooting team. In the 17/18 season, they were top for this metric in Europe's top 5 league.

In the 19/20 season, Madrid ranks 14th in Europe in terms of shots per 90 (1 place down from 18/19). Looking at just the volume of shots per 90, it’s clear that Madrid are shooting much less now.

Next step would be to look at how many shots are they managing to put on target.

SoT p90:

16/17: 7.45 (2nd in Europe)
17/18: 7 (1st)
18/19: 5.32 (12th)
19/20: 5.84 (8th)

Although there is a reduction in volume, Zidane’s Real Madrid this season is a team that’s based on efficiency. Real Madrid are trying to place a higher % of their shots on target.

During 18/19 season Madrid averaged 34.9% of their total shots to be on target. During this season that % is up to 40.1.

They're prioritizing their shots to be on target rather than shooting high in volume but this doesn’t say much about the areas they are taking the shots from.

For eg: Taking a shot from 35m out is not ideal as this shot has a lower probability of being scored even though it's on target.

It’s also best to look at open play shots & their distribution rather than looking at the raw volume of shots from all situations (corners, FKs, pens)

Let’s look at the open play shot density map in the last 4 seasons.

The red spots on the map highlight more shots being placed from that region.

On the first look, the reduction in the volume of shots from front of goal, where the probability of scoring is the highest, is clear

Madrid’s shots are more distributed and the hotspots appear around periphery of the box towards the right hand side.

This isn't ideal. Not only has the volume of shots taken by Madrid has reduced, the quality of these shots has also gone down.

Looking at the personnel:

The obvious next step will be to look at the players that take the most shots at Madrid and try to see where those shots come from.

Lets take a look at the top 3 players in terms of shots p90 in each of the last 4 seasons.

Top 3 players in terms of shot p90 in the league (900 mins)

16/17
• Ronaldo: 5.73
• Bale: 4.03
• Morata: 3.73

17/18
• Ronaldo: 6.95
• Bale: 3.79
• Asensio: 2.75

18/19
• Bale: 3.83
• Benz: 3.15
• Asensio: 2.27

19/20
• Benz: 3.51
• Bale: 2.78
• Vinicius Jr: 2.56

In the seasons involving Ronaldo he was always the volume shooter in the team. Lets look at where most of his shots came from.

Ronaldo’s OP shot density map conveys what was suspected. He was the player to shoot the most & from better areas too. His shots were high quality

In contrast, this is Benzema’s OP shot density map in the last 2 seasons since he shouldered more responsibility in attack.

The difference is stark, Benzema’s shots are more distributed & don’t particularly come from the danger zones either.

Benzema is the last one to blame in this though. After a 2-year dip following 15/16 season, Benzema has managed to increase his shot volume & emerge as the leader in attack.

His shots p90 stat in the last 3 seasons are
17/18: 2.62
18/19: 3.15
19/20: 3.51

Bale was expected to help compensate for the loss in volume shooting and the lack of but has found himself in a limbo.

Injuries, disconnect on the pitch has not only seen his mins reduce but also his volume and quality of shots.

Could Jovic be the answer?

In his breakout season at Frankfurt Jovic averaged 3.83 shots p90 and his shot density was high in the central regions.

The thing to note though is that Jovic played in a 2 man upfront system, a system that Madrid don’t use.

Incorporating Jovic raises many other questions. Will he succeed as a lone striker? Will Madrid incorporate him alongside Benzema and adopt a 2 man upfront system? If yes what would that mean for the wide players at Madrid?

Ditching Benzema isn't as straightforward as it seems either. Benzema forms an integral part of Madrid's buildup. Will Jovic be able to help in that regard? Will this force Madrid to change their systems?

One thing is clear though, after Ronaldo’s departure Madrid’s search to find a dominant figure in the central areas to compensate for the goals & shots is still on. While Benzema has shouldered the responsibility, Madrid still lack that figure in attack.

What according to you could be a workaround this problem or is it not a significant problem at all? What player do you think could solve this problem?

[image credits: @iF2is ]

[End of thread]

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