2. Yes, COVID-19 stalled STATIN for a bit, delaying the inflation data, but in any case, we also thought it would be in poor taste to keep going on about inflation in the early throes of a pandemic. But now STATIN is back and we’re in economic recovery mode, so here we are.
3. It’s great to have the inflation data to examine again, since inflation is about expectations, and growing pessimism during a crisis is normal, especially without data. It becomes easy for us to fear that all indicators including inflation will run off in the wrong direction.
4. We’re very happy to report that this did not happen, and despite all the COVID-19 related challenges we’ve actually had to confront, you can rest assured that a sustained spike in inflation has not been one of them. For May 2020, inflation stood at 4.74%, well within target. 
5. It was a little higher in April 2020, at 5.48, but again, remained within target, in spite of COVID-19.
6. With the second-highest increase but the biggest weighting, the biggest driver of increased prices in May 2020 was the Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages category, which increased by 7.7% compared to May 2019.
7. Much of the increase in this category came from rather robust agricultural food prices, which increased by 15.8 % over May 2019, largely because of adverse weather conditions.
8. A 28% increase in water rates and a 7% increase in electricity rates also played a part in the May result. Tempering the overall increase in May 2020 were declines in Education-related and Transport costs, which declined by 10.3% and 2.1% respectively, compared to May 2019.
9. So, overall, we’ve not seen a significant COVID-19 impact on inflation so far, and importantly, we’re not projecting a big impact going forward.
10. In fact, if COVID-19 does eventually have some impact on inflation, it’s likely that the result will be lower inflation, not higher. It seems we ‘flattened the curve’ in more ways than one!
11. Remember, as we told you in March 2020 when we last spoke about the inflation numbers, you can be assured that, “…our monetary policy measures, along with the Government’s fiscal stimulus, are aimed at mitigating the impact of this pandemic…and supporting…recovery…”
12. Actually, the biggest news about inflation is that – kudos to STATIN – COVID-19 did not stop the planned upgrade of the inflation basket, which STATIN announced earlier this month. We’ll take a closer look at the new and improved basket in a bit, so stay tuned!
13. Thank you for your kind attention!
