Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
@ArmsControlWonk
Jul 28, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
This actually makes quite a bit of sense. The point of the #UAS restriction was originally to prevent the transfer of target drones that could be repurposed as cruise missiles.
Taiwan, for example, acquired a US-built target drone in the 1980s that it seems to have believed would make a good cruise missile. ImageImage
The drones we use today are much more like remote-controlled aircraft than missiles, as @mchorowitz has pointed out.
thebulletin.org/2017/06/drones…
So, dividing the #UAS category into drones that are like aircraft (<800 km/h) and those that are like missiles (>800 km/h) makes a lot of sense to me. Here's a chart showing how I think different systems will be effected. Image
I am less worried about the impact on the #MTCR because, in practice, states export these systems anyway despite a "strong presumption of denial". Most of the systems on this list, including Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, have been exported to one country or another.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 20
Russia has issued a new (2024) "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence" (основы Государственной Политики Российской Федерации В Области Ядерного Сдерживания). Same wine, new bottle. 🧵.
static.kremlin.ru/media/events/f…
BLUF/TLDR: Four significant changes from 2020 but these changes are all (1) at the margin, (2) consistent with past Soviet/Russian policy, and (3) stuff that I believed was the policy in fact, even if it had been unstated.
It's also exactly what Putin foreshadowed last month.
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Read 23 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 14
No, it probably can't. At least not anytime soon. A short 🧵.
1. The report was written by a think tank, not technical experts from the 🇺🇦 gov't.
2. 🇺🇦 has ~7 tons of reactor Pu, enough for several hundred simple-fission weapons.
3. The Pu is sitting in spent fuel. To use it, 🇺🇦 would have to build a separation plant, which would take years and cost hundreds of billions.
web.archive.org/web/2024111318…
First, some context. The document is just a report prepared by a think tank that will be presented at a conference. This very much stretches the definition of "news."👇 Image
Read 20 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 8
This is a great idea! If North Korea tests the Hwasan-31 "tactical" nuclear warhead, this is what we'll see. A short 🧵.
According to Kim Yo Jong, the explosive power or "yield" of the Hwasan-31, pictured below, is the same as 900 tons of TNT -- that's much smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima (15,000 tons) or Nagasaki (21,000 tons). Image
Image
The first indication will be a statement from @USGS_Quakes. Some time after that, the @CTBTO will also issue a statement. Here is what those looked like for the last test. Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Oct 4
I am coming around to the idea that Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets. A little thread on cost effectiveness at the margins.
The US fired 12 interceptors during this engagement from the destroyers Bulkeley and Cole. Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total. (Each interceptor is about $30 million.) Image
Image
Arrow-2 and -3 production rates are classified, but Arrow-3 is more expensive than SM-3 at about $50 million per interceptor. You can see lots of Israeli officials talking about the need to reduce the cost of interceptors and increase production rates.
defensedaily.com/israeli-arrow-…
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Sep 13
I think the three big takeaways are:
1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant.
2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010.
3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
🧵
As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Here is the team's reasoning. North Korea released 5 images -- 4 inside the "big" hall and 1 inside the annex that @ColinZwirko first noticed under construction in March of this year.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Read 18 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
May 26
Our friends at @planet have a really nice series of images of the "Typhon" missile launchers that the US has temporarily deployed in the Philippines. A couple of observations. Image
The Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or "Typhon" (named after a Greek giant just to please @tomkarako) is a @USArmy missile system capable of launching the ~500 km-range SM-6 and the ~2000 km-range Tomahawk missiles. There is a nice CRS report on the system.
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…

Image
Image
@tomkarako @USArmy The deployment of the system to the Philippines is temporary and coincides with a series of US-RP military exercises. US officials, however, have avoided specifying how long "temporary" will be.
usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-…
Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(