Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Jul 29, 2020 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Lots of Americans worried about their ability to pay for housing.

34% of renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to pay rent next month, in the week ending July 21.

Was 31% a month ago (6/23 week). Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
Huge shares of renters lack confidence in ability to pay August rent in Southern states, OK, NE, NV, WV, NY, NJ, and CT. Image
Averaging over the last 2 weeks to reduce noise changes map a bit but still very high levels of concern. Image
It's not just renters. About 15% of American households that owe a mortgage each month have slight or no confidence in their ability to make their August payment.

Here's the rate by state averaged over the 2 weeks ending July 21. Again, lots of concern in the South. Image
Compare the national share of mortgage payers with no or slight confidence to similar weeks in prior months

Rate: week ending
15.3%: July 21
13.6%: June 23
14.3%: May 19
Among households that regularly owe rent or mortgage:

55% have experienced employment income loss since 3/3

38% expect losses in the next 4 weeks

23% lack confidence can make Aug housing payment

31% can't control worry most days Image
Employment-income loss experiences and expectations and lack of confidence to pay for August housing are prevalent among all race and ethnicity groups but especially Black and Hispanic Americans.

Worry shows less disparity, so not displayed to reduce complexity. Image
Employment-income loss experiences and expectations are prevalent among all income groups but much more so among those with lower incomes in 2019.

Lack of confidence to pay for August housing is not very prevalent among highest-income, perhaps due to more savings & credit. Image
56% of working-age households had an employment-income loss since March.

For them, over 1 in 4 use unemployment insurance for weekly expenses & most will struggle when they lose the $600/week enhanced federal insurance payment.

5 Americans are unemployed for every open job. Image
All this analysis relies on @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey, a pilot product that only had enough $ to run to this week.

Senator @brianschatz & @censusproject are calling to continue. Learn more & contact your Congresspeople to #FundPulseSurveys.

People want to pay their mortgages and stay in their homes. But loss of income can force defaults, evictions, and deeper health and economic crisis. See evidence here:

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More from @aaronsojourner

Jun 9, 2023
This paper is SOOOOO interesting. I love it.

They posit 3 types of Americans with different relations to the labor market. Folks in:

- primary enjoy steady work, any job search quick.

- 2ndary struggle to find jobs, move across U, E, N a lot.

- 3iary mostly out.
These bring the Dual Labor Market hypothesis home to the U.S.

Interprets short-panel linked CPS data combining:

- a hidden Markov model of observed transitions by latent type,

- a measurement model uses many rich CPS questions to assign each person type probabilities.
The primary market, estimated to represent 55% of American population, enjoys super-high LFPR/EPOP, super-low UR.

2ndary (14%): in LF 73% of time but unemployed a third of that time.

3riary (32%): out 91% of time. UR intermediate when in.

Heterogeneity that matters. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 21, 2023
Amazon warehouse mgmt uses intensive, opaque monitoring as input to discipline, pay, promotion, & firing decisions.

MN just passed a law requiring employers like them to make such standards, incentives, & data transparent to workers.

Fascinating on a few fronts... Image
No one likes working to unclear standards.

But mgmt often prefers it,⬇️some gaming &⬆️ managers' discretionary power.

Even if mgmt uses clear well-justified rules, if workers don't know them, feel arbitrary.

Mgmt says, trust us. Many workers do not.
thenation.com/article/politi…
In a workplace with new tech-enabled, intensive, high-stakes monitoring, it's interesting to see workers demand & win transparency of rules & of data.

Amazon warehouse workers in MN have actively pushed to improve working conditions for a decade @AwoodMpls. This is latest win.
Read 5 tweets
May 18, 2023
Lower-income Americans often need access to $ NOW!

Speedier payments benefit those most in need.

Instant payments, like @federalreserve’s FedNow coming July, would create billions in consumer value.

🧵my new paper w/the great @ryanmcdevitt
direct.mit.edu/rest/article-a… Image
We measure willingness-to-pay (WTP) for $ today versus $ soon.

Use transaction data from a bank that offers both bank accts (BA) & check-cashing (CC), unusual.

Usually, 2 services offered by different bizs = tough to leverage customer choices to credibly isolate WTP.
@springbankny was 1st new S. Bronx-based bank in 25 years when in 2007 when started as Check Spring Bank. Later I served on & chaired bank’s board.

Aimed to deliver financial services value to S. Bronx community, compete head-to-head with check cashiers.
spring.bank/about-us Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28, 2023
Wealthiest 0.1% of Americans saw 5.0% of their wealth disappear from the quarter before the Fed started hiking rates in 2022Q1 to 2022Q4

The next 0.9% saw 7% of their wealth disappear

In contrast, the least-wealthy half of Americans saw their (much smaller) wealth rise 17%
The price of Fed action to fight inflation has so far been paid mostly by wealthier Americans whose assets in stocks, crypto, & elsewhere deflated.

If Fed causes employers to start destroying jobs in the real economy, the price burden will shift dramatically.
This is how it started and the labor market has held up remarkably well. The Fed can break it though.

Hard-landing advocates claim doing so is the only way to bring down inflation.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 29, 2023
10% of America's abt 155 million employees belong to a union.

+1 percentage point a year requires +1.55 million net members if employment flat.

In 2022, union membership rose 273K, 6X smaller.
Estimated +273K from @BLS_gov worker survey. Reflects net hiring by union employers, priv (+193K) + public (+80K) sector, & new organizing inside & outside NLRB.

Abt 52K private sector workers voted to newly unionize in 2022, eyeballing @KevinReuning's NLRB data. 30X smaller.
@BLS_gov @KevinReuning The AFL-CIO's strategy aims to organize 1 million workers over 10 yrs, +100K/yr pace.

That's either 37% of the 2022 pace if it includes all change or less than 2X 2022's pace if newly unionized only.

Is this under-promising to over-deliver?
reuters.com/world/us/us-la…
Read 8 tweets

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