Thread by @SethAbramson

(THREAD) Trump's federal deployments appear to be election interference ops. They target Democratic cities in battleground/purple states:

🟪 FL (Jacksonville)
🟪 MI (Detroit)
🟪 PA (Philadelphia)
🟪 MO (KC)
🟪 OH (Cleveland)
🟪 WI (Milwaukee)

I hope you'll read on and retweet.

1/ Trump has made clear:

1⃣ He's exclusively targeting cities run by Democrats.
2⃣ His actions aim to embarrass the Democratic Party.
3⃣ His deployments are intended to dovetail with his anti-crime campaign rhetoric, which focuses on Democrats alleged inability to control crime.

2/ But in covering these historical federal deployments, media has thought too little—ironically—about media markets. If police clash with protesters in NYC, it does *not* make the news in Ohio the same way police clashing with protesters in Cleveland would make the news in Ohio.

3/ By the same token, to the extent certain of these deployments are allegedly intended as "classic crime-fighting" missions—to use AG Bill Barr's words—they imply that certain states, mostly *battleground states*, are criminal hotbeds because of Democratic politicians' actions.

4/ But we already know that both Trump *and* Bill Barr are lying about the necessity of these missions. Yesterday, Ali Velshi of MSNBC reported on the THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW that while Barr claimed 200 arrests had been made in Kansas City, the true total was...

...one. Just one.

5/ Now *that's* odd. Why would Barr *overstate* crime in a battleground state? Specifically, in a city run by a Democrat in a battleground state? Well, look at the presidential polling map below and you'll see a highly probable answer, based on Barr's rhetoric and Donald Trump's:

6/ And now, today, we have Donald Trump putting out one of the most monstrous tweets in presidential history: a tweet aimed at telling suburban whites that he has rescinded an order by a black president—and Joe Biden—that put more Black people and crime into their neighborhoods:

7/ We also have, today, another piece of startling news that at first blush seemed like good news; now I'm not so sure. Trump will—allegedly—be pulling federal troops from Oregon...

...which isn't a battleground state.

But this is merely a *redeployment* to battleground states.

8/ I'm reminded, too, of AG Barr testifying under oath yesterday that the *only* reason he's starting missions in battleground states *right* as Trump's 2020 campaign pivots to an anti-crime message is COVID-19. He says he actually initiated Operation Relentless Pursuit in 2019.

9/ If you're pretty confused by the timeline here, you should be. Barr announced Relentless Pursuit on December 18—the day Trump was impeached. That's also *three months* before COVID-19 should have disrupted in any significant way this major new DOJ initiative. So what happened?

10/ Questions Barr's testimony raises:

1⃣ Why did he announce Operation Legend at the same time Trump pivoted to an anti-crime message—if Operation Relentless Pursuit was already extant and with the same aim?
2⃣ Why does he now claim Relentless Pursuit did *nothing* in 3 months?

11/ To be clear, yes, we've heard of potential federal operations targeting non-battlegrounds NYC and Chicago—two of the nation's three largest cities (the third, LA, is in the midst of a massive COVID-19 outbreak, and few folks are outside)—as well as Seattle, a liberal bastion.

12/ We must wait to see if such less-politically-useful deployments—still targeting "Democratic" cities—materialize. But due to the size of these cities, they're the most likely to get major press—and federal agent-citizen clashes are the most likely to be large and camera-ready.

13/ What's most important, now, is for media to *wake up*. These deployments carry all the trapping of a *campaign advertising strategy*.

Trump himself has made clear that they are about politically framing his Democratic opponent and his party. Barr has already lied about them.

14/ I know media is still focused on distinguishing between PACT—a new initiative to patrol federal grounds, which led to the Portland clashes—and Operation Legend (a "classic crime-fighting initiative").

But the presence of "Legend" in a city can lead to mass protests—and PACT.

15/ That Barr is already lying about the timing, necessity, utility and success of Operation Legend—as well as how perfectly it was synchronized with the rollout of Trump's new campaign theme—tells us that federal agents executing Operation Legend *won't* be hiding in back rooms.

16/ All it'll take is one high-profile arrest of a Black citizen by federal agents in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia or elsewhere—arrests that would've never happened, and for which no clear authority would've existed, pre-Legend—for protests to arise in that city/media market.

17/ Trump and Barr have the bully pulpit they need—and authority to distribute resources—to draw Americans' attention to any protest they like. Trump's campaign media arm will immediately turn battleground-state events into commercials.

As *all of this is a campaign commercial*.

18/ So what should media do?

1⃣ Research the *actual crime rates* in these cities.
2⃣ Demand data on the *effectiveness* of Trump's actions.
3⃣ Map *where* federal agents deploy nationally.
4⃣ Map where agents appear *within* cities.
5⃣ Cover local and state *legal pushback*.

19/ And, just as importantly:

6⃣ Do *not* frame these actions are necessary, warranted, or just—indeed, do not frame these actions as anything but a "campaign stunt"—unless and until we have hard data on *why* certain cities are being targeted and the *utility* of these actions.

20/ This thread would've predicted that federal agents would leave Seattle, as it offers Trump the least political benefit of any city he wants to send federal agents to for "campaign stunt" purposes. And guess what I just saw, as I was ending this thread:

https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1288218711573159942?s=20

PS/ Media must also cover evidence from Minneapolis, Richmond and other capitals that many of the "left-wing riots" Barr uses to justify his actions are in fact instigated by Trumpists. As Trumpists increasingly see what Trump is doing as a political stunt, they'll try to *help*.

NOTE/ Those who write thinkpieces must take a longer view: Trump has spent months coddling QAnon, those talking of Civil War, and Trumpists who arm themselves for protests. Now he lets his fans see they can help him by—who would've guessed!—instigating violence. Write about that.

WATCHLIST/ Media should also develop a watchlist of "battleground cities" where—if Trump announces deployments there—it substantiates any claim this is a political stunt. The "watchlist" cities left:

SENATE BATTLEGROUND
Atlanta
Charlotte
Denver
Phoenix

POTUS BATTLEGROUND
Miami

WATCHLIST2/ Having said that, we don't know if Trump's apparent plan covers Senate battlegrounds—he seems mostly concerned with his own political survival—and Miami is a COVID-19 hotspot (and Trump already has plans to enter Florida via Jacksonville) so Miami may be a nonstarter.

WATCHLIST3/ In other words, with Trump out of Seattle now (per Inslee) and soon out of Portland—and with Los Angeles and Miami being unwise deployments due to COVID-19—Trump may actually now be hitting *all* the necessary "political stunt" cities. And, indeed, *only* such cities.

SOURCES/ thehill.com/homenews/admin…

SOURCES2/ Why didn't Operation Relentless Pursuit (December 2019) send agents to these states in 2019? Or in the 3 months the op was extant pre-COVID-19? Media must ask why this is happening *now*—under Operation Legend—which dovetails with Trump rhetoric. usatoday.com/story/news/pol…

SOURCES3/ startribune.com/police-umbrell…

SOURCES4/ wsls.com/news/virginia/…

SOURCES5/ Good info here:

1️⃣ Violent crime is decreasing.
2️⃣ Trump will also enter the battleground state of New Mexico.
3️⃣ The Trump camp won't provide accurate data to substantiate its moves.
4️⃣ All this "dovetails with Trump's election-year rhetoric." politico.com/news/2020/07/2…