Thread by @JoshuaCypess

1/ I have a long thread in the waiting about Biden's VP possibilities (I'm trying to convert it from a private blog essay) but I just read some goofball say that Harris won't get it - in his estimation - because she was a bad campaigner.

This is nonsensical.

2/ Even if it were true (who was a good campaigner? Biden? C'mon now. I think ppl compare every Dem to Bill Clinton & Obama and that isn't fair) when have VPs been picked on their campaign skills?

I gave the answer already, b/c Obama picked Biden as VP in '08

3/ But look at the Dem VPs from 1988 til now

88 = Bentsen? nope
92 = Gore? Hahahahahahaha
00 = Lieberman? Joementum-outa-here
04 = Edwards. Yes. He was better than Kerry
08 = Biden? No way
16 = Kaine? Srsly?

So 1/6 since '88 for Dems

4/ Now onto the GOP

88 = Quayle? He would have been the reason they lost
96 = Kemp. Yes, likely better than Dole
00 = Cheney? Nope
08 = Palin? No way
12 = Ryan? Noooo way
16 = Pence? Kinda, but b/c he has a great radio voice.

So 2/6 at best

5/ Why there's so much jabber about the #VP topic is because (a) there's almost nothing else campaign related outside of polls and (b) it's gossip plus punditry rolling into one, and that's what the bulk of journalism has devolved into

6/ OK, this is nuts. This suggests, more and more, that she'll be VP b/c these "insiders" are getting desperate.
This doesn't feel like 4D chess, and it could just be #misogynoir, but these leakers need to chill out

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1288561956350300166

7/ An interesting perspective here (from someone who's much more on his game than I am). Basically, this same basic group has been leaking the same nonsense for months:

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1288587651247943681

8/ OK, trying to complete the VP thread before it becomes moot. But, notice how yesterday we read a story that said the 2 finalists were Harris & Susan Rice and now today NBC reports Whitmer is a finalist.

Neither can be correct. And I doubt either actually are.

9/ Some background from the start. For Chris Dodd's misogynist/misogynoir comments <politico.com/news/2020/07/2…>

And what I felt was a great response by WP's Karen Tamulty (@ktumulty): washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

10/ An essential part of being a news-scholar is to know how news is made.

Compare it to the police and solving crimes. TV makes us think that detectives are Sherlock Holmes & need to deduce from clues. That's a chunk of it, but most crimes are solved by witnesses or informants

11/ This is reality & BTW why broken/cruel police prevent crime-solving. Informants willingly come come forward if they *trust* the police; but if the PD is corrupt, unjust, capricious etc then it's dangerous to go to them. You get counter ethics of 'moseir' & snitches/stitches

12/ I can say this as a community rabbi: people come to you with their news if they think you're trying to help & benefit them. If not, you grow out of touch & it snowballs: the congregation thinks you don't care. Leadership takes an investment in listening & communicating

13/ Anyway, the 'sleuth' vs 'informant' model of finding information in the police is the same dynamic with reporters. Like a TV detective (or Fletch 😁), they'll look for clues by digging & developing sources. Shoe leather; forensics; analyzing documents

14/ But most news in politics is created when rival factions leak. The good reporters will evaluate the source/leaker; try to balance the animus of the leaker with the value of the story.

The bad ones are stenographers (the NYT has been terrible about this, see 'Anonymous')

15/ Politico's bread and butter is political leaks so in my observation they seem to just print WHATEVER, and I'm seeing that in the VP stories.

It doesn't help that the VP story is the only one in politics actually available right now.

16/ So what's going on? Is there real strife behind the decision? As Tumulty shows above, this always seems to happen.

I remember the Obama buildup. I wrote it on my ancient blog: (the-styx.blogspot.com/search/label/VP & esp: the-styx.blogspot.com/2008/08/obamas…) So there may be actually no real strife

17/ But most of us realize that this may be the most consequential VP in a long while.

Biden may not last his term, both because of general health, virus health, and/or the political strategy of stepping down in 2024 (or even 2022).

18/ Since ppl expect him to not run in 2024, the VP's the presumed front runner. So the stakes within the party are high.

Biden was a consensus compromise by the party centrists & normies (esp. AfAm votes) but he's not the future. The VP is where the steak will get it's sizzle

19/ So I should expect the politicking to be real. Hence the leaks.

The main camps, as far as I can see, are:

1. Harris
2. The Obama Camp: Susan Rice
3. The Leftists
4. The Not-Harris Normies

20/ Harris is so logical that I'd be truly surprised if she wasn't chosen but I've been extremely wrong before. See above (the-styx.blogspot.com/2008/08/obamas…) where I said explicitly that Biden was not a good choice & the smartest pick would be Tim Kaine.

I swear to God I said that in 2008

21/ To be clear, I actually suggested KS Gov. Sebelius
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_…), but I think I was right about Kaine over Biden if Obama needed a pasty white guy.

Kaine would have run in 2016 as President & could even have chosen Hillary as the VP or any other woman. Anyhoo

22/ The Obama Camp is explicit in their desire to have Susan Rice be VP. What I'd say to those guys: you got your Obama Camp Guy: Biden. Siddown

I feel Rice would not be a good choice. She's never held elected office let alone run a national race & this will be a brutal campaign

21/ Rice is a highly competent administrator & good for foreign policy. Wheeeee. So make her Sec of State or Defense. Please.

But let's not fall down the standard Dem quagmire of looking for bureaucrats (HOG) as your public face.

22/ The Leftists are pushing someone like Karen Bass (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Bass). Her Cuba/Commie stuff seems DOA & I think choosing House Reps for VP is risky. Ferraro looms in my mind.

Also, Bass is 66. Harris is 55

I'd say that if Harris becomes VP make Bass the next Senator

23/ Anyway, I think the far Left is pushing Bass b/c they know Biden won't choose a well-known Leftist, so they're making an impossible request in order to complain they were snubbed and keep up their grievance so the Only True One, Bernard The First will rescue them.

24/ The Bernard Wing does this all the time. In '16 they said Hillary was bad but they'd support Warren. In '20 they abruptly turned against Warren but said they'd support Stacy Abrams.

This happens too often for me to not assume bad faith

25/ The non-Harris people just don't like her for whatever reason.

The Nixon pantomime says she's a bad politician. NeverTrumpers say she was stupid for attacking Biden on busing. I think these guys are too GOP in their DNA to know anything abt what Dems (or most Americans) want

26/ Many non-Harris people have been pushing Duckworth (probably, again, because they know it won't happen and they then get to criticize everything Harris will do because they "knew better") after Klobuchar dropped out; or any of the other long-shots

27/ Much of this is a pundit's game of acting like you're above it all, knew everything beforehand, and - above all - allowing you to criticize the reality by saying your head-visions would have been better

Many of the same ppl assumed Bernie was going to win, BTW. So apply salt

28/ Ultimately, I was wrong in 2008, so I can't say I'll be correct here.

But I'll actually be happy if Harris is nominated.

In March, pre-pandemic, I said I'd run thru a wall for this ticket. I'd change the metaphor now, but the feeling is the same.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaCypess/status/1237587917960171521

@threadreaderapp please unroll (I say with false confidence that I won't add more to this...)