Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Polls

Most recents (8)

Ah, the #EuropeanParliamentElection knocks at the door! Let’s see who is #campaigning for what…In #Italy, a #rightwingcoalition calls for a #guaranteedincome, #largerpensions, and resistance to the heavy-handed #austerityprograms enforced by the #EuropeanUnion.
In #France, some #rightwinggroups champion #fight against #climatechange, decry #exploitation of #foreignworkers, growing #economicinequality. What about the #centerright and #centerleft parties? #Polls show they will lose their #majority, and the Euroskeptics bag 30+% of seats.
However, #Euroskeptic, like #populist, is a term that obscures more than it reveals. #Spain’s leftist #Podemos isn’t likely to break bread with #Italy’s rightist #NorthernLeague-#M5S, but both are considered #Euroskeptic. Some are really #wolves but wear #sheepskins.
Read 18 tweets
The #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Read 13 tweets
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
THREAD: I’ve spent the last few weeks chatting with people about the upcoming #midterm elections. I’d like to share some of what I’ve heard and why this gives me so much hope.🇺🇸
I met these young women while walking my pups in my beachside community. For privacy reasons, I won’t share their real names (let’s call them “Julie” and “Amy”), but they graciously allowed me to share their stories.
One the best parts of walking my “boys” (Bowen and Bynum) is that I get to meet lots of strangers. I mean, who can resist these two?😍

Seriously, the pups break the ice, and as a consequence, I’ve met lots of interesting people.
Read 27 tweets
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets
Spooks are Spooked.
Clowns inserted [Snowden2] last year.
Operation failed.
Expect another BIG coordinated wave [#3] of attacks by FAKE NEWS.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#CLOWNSINACTION
Those who are attacked the most are the BIGGEST threat.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#4AM
Read 5 tweets

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