Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Polls

Most recents (13)

1/ Any analysis of Trump (ym'sh) must implicitly understand - if not overtly state - that he's a career criminal AND he fits the profile of a malignant narcissist (as asserted by his niece). There's no long-term thinking; he's all desperate & predictable need.
2/ Furthermore, any analysis of the election (& pandemic) must overtly state that 35-40% of the public exclusively watches FoxNews and are thus immersed in non-factual propaganda

Using this fact as a starting point shows why most of the 'fundamentals' are unreliable
3/ #Polls should have as a screening question: "where do you get your news" If it's "only Fox" (& equivalents, like Facebook) then I would suggest those voters need to be coded as resistant to fundamentals. The don't know the causes of the bad economy, mass death etc
Read 7 tweets
I wanna run a couple of quick yes/no polls just to figure out trends in our behaviour, please do help by participating and sharing the thread, grateful and thanks in advance 🙏🏻
#polls
If airlines start flying from 15th May will you fly for something not very essential?
#flights
If the #lockdown ends on 15th May and you get a wedding reception invite, will you attend it?
Read 11 tweets
Avui farà una setmana que vam haver de quedar-nos a casa. Quatre dies abans del decret. Havia anat prenent nota d'alguns detalls i, per fi, he pogut reunir un moment per passar a net alguns gargots que vaig esbossar...

Comencem...

#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
El segon dia de la nostra quarantena familiar, dimarts de la setmana passada. Érem joves i innocents...
#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
I arribo al nostre tercer dia en quarantena: dimecres passat. Vam començar a adonar-nos que allò no seria qüestió de dos dies...
#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
Read 104 tweets
1/
Hey folks: I wanted to share something @apmresearch just released that I’m very proud of:

Our VOTER PROFILE TOOLS, as part of our broader #RepresentingUS project. (Read: A wealth of data to understand the US electorate in interactive @tableau tools.)
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 2/
We at @apmresearch released these tools on #IowaCaucus day, but expect that they will be valuable up until the #2020election & beyond—to understand how eligible voters differ—often dramatically—from state to state & in each congressional district.

apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 3/
Already I’ve read numerous #media stories about the #IowaCaucuses & #NewHampshirePrimary saying those states don’t reflect the nation’s #demographics, but the #journalists didn’t include any data as to HOW they differed and to what degree.
Read 22 tweets
Interesting evening spent with 4 senators at a very small gathering. LOTS of optimism—fueled by internal #poll data—that we will flip the Senate.

Maine: @SenatorCollins is DOWN by 2 points. Her #Kavanaugh vote decimated her approval rating — she went from 57 to the upper-30’s.😎
Senate breakdown is 53 @GOP—47 @SenateDems + Independent.

@DougJones faces a tough re-election bid, but @jeffsessions may split the anti-Roy Moore vote. If Moore wins the primary, Jones has a great chance.

If Jones loses, we need 4-5 seats to flip—4 if we win @POTUS, 5 if not.
In Colorado, @CoryGardner is in BIG trouble. John @Hickenlooper leads by 12 points!

In #NC, @ThomTillis is literally polling in the toilet (approval rating in the 20’s!), so another great pickup opportunity for @TheDemocrats.😎
Read 17 tweets
Ah, the #EuropeanParliamentElection knocks at the door! Let’s see who is #campaigning for what…In #Italy, a #rightwingcoalition calls for a #guaranteedincome, #largerpensions, and resistance to the heavy-handed #austerityprograms enforced by the #EuropeanUnion.
In #France, some #rightwinggroups champion #fight against #climatechange, decry #exploitation of #foreignworkers, growing #economicinequality. What about the #centerright and #centerleft parties? #Polls show they will lose their #majority, and the Euroskeptics bag 30+% of seats.
However, #Euroskeptic, like #populist, is a term that obscures more than it reveals. #Spain’s leftist #Podemos isn’t likely to break bread with #Italy’s rightist #NorthernLeague-#M5S, but both are considered #Euroskeptic. Some are really #wolves but wear #sheepskins.
Read 18 tweets
The #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Read 13 tweets
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
THREAD: I’ve spent the last few weeks chatting with people about the upcoming #midterm elections. I’d like to share some of what I’ve heard and why this gives me so much hope.🇺🇸
I met these young women while walking my pups in my beachside community. For privacy reasons, I won’t share their real names (let’s call them “Julie” and “Amy”), but they graciously allowed me to share their stories.
One the best parts of walking my “boys” (Bowen and Bynum) is that I get to meet lots of strangers. I mean, who can resist these two?😍

Seriously, the pups break the ice, and as a consequence, I’ve met lots of interesting people.
Read 27 tweets
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets
Spooks are Spooked.
Clowns inserted [Snowden2] last year.
Operation failed.
Expect another BIG coordinated wave [#3] of attacks by FAKE NEWS.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#CLOWNSINACTION
Those who are attacked the most are the BIGGEST threat.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#4AM
Read 5 tweets

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