This is a subject about which theories are put forward endlessly
I wanted to explore it in more detail and teamed up with @BBCPM to do so
Two key areas emerged. The idea of lockdown fatigue and where we were on the epidemic cycle.
It seems hard to recall now but one of the main reasons given as to why Britain wasn't locking down as other countries were was the idea of behavioural fatigue
The idea that this was a bullet which could be fired once and after a period we'd tire of it.
Eg Whitty 9th March:
"It is important on this - it’s not just a matter of what you do, it is also a matter of when you do it. Once we’ve started these things, you’ll have to continue them through the peak..
You might think that if it came from anywhere, it would be from SPI-B, the govt's expert group which advises on behavioural science and psychology
But it didn’t.
“It certainly didn’t come from Spi-B. And it is not a behavioural sci term. If you look in the literature you won't find it because it doesn’t exist.”
12th March: " An important part of the science on this is actually the behavioural science, and what that shows is probably common sense to everybody in this audience...
We now know that was wrong- the public were willing to tolerate lockdown for far longer than experts assumed.
On 12th March Jeremy Hunt told @KirstyWark that he was sceptical about it and he'd like to see the modelling and thinking behind the assumption
If he'd got his wish, what would he have seen?
"Empirical evidence for the behavioural and social impact of, and adherence to, each of the strategies is limited. We are not aware of any evidence on their interaction."
No joy there
"There is no strong evidence for public compliance rates changing during a major emergency."
So where did it come from?
Off the record, scientists and officials have pointed us to the influence of the Behavioural Insights Team (Nudge Unit)
But it is striking that the CMO was talking about "the science" of this, for something with no science to its name
On 12th March Vallance said the govt thought we were 10-12 weeks away from the peak
It was more like 4-5
When asked why we weren't locking down, ministers and officials repeatedly said that we were behind the curve of other countries
It was a fateful miscalculation
The natural answer is the politicians but that's not the whole picture
1) waited for the science too long to make judgments
2) didn't consult a wide enough body of science (too many modellers not enough from public health, a common complaint from those we interviewed )