Thread by @Uncrewed

We're continuing our State Legislative finance series by looking at Michigan tonight! We've only got State House elections here this year, but we've got some exciting ones! Let's get to it!

#HD17:

Chris Slat (D)- RAISED: $14,063 ON HAND: $11,532
Joe Bellino (R, Inc)- RAISED: $9,112 ON HAND: $59,058

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Monroe-area seat went to Trump by 18, but Gretchen Whitmer only lost it by 1 in 2018. Slat raising some good fundraising numbers should give some encouragement to Dems here, but this remains kind of a reach seat for them.

#HD19:

Laurie Pohutsky (D, Inc)- RAISED: $87,034 ON HAND: $95,685

Penny Crider (R)- RAISED: $50,225 ON HAND: $39,394
Regina Gargus (R)- Hasn't reported yet
Martha Ptashnik (R)- RAISED: $21,119 ON HAND: $30,296

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt D

This Trump+7/Whitmer+7 seat in Livonia seems like a perfect contender for a suburban district that will only get bluer and Pohutsky is putting up some good fundraising numbers to further that case.

#HD20:

Matt Koleszar (D, Inc)- RAISED: $61,842 ON HAND: $95,555

John Lacny (R)- RAISED: $0 ON HAND: $0
Laura Roush (R)- RAISED: $0 ON HAND: $0

@CNalysis Rating: Lean D

Republicans don't appear to be putting much of an effort in to flip back this Clinton+4/Whitmer+10 district in the Plymouth Township area

#HD24:

Steve Marino (R, Inc)- RAISED: $16,035 ON HAND: $11,396

Alex Bronson (D)- RAISED: $9,987 ON HAND: $1,377
Michelle Woodman (D)- RAISED: $3,447 ON HAND: $896

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+16/Schuette+1 district in Macomb County looks like another reach district for Democrats in their quest to take the State House. Dems are kinda competitive in the fundraising department, but Marino has a sizable cash-on-hand lead.

#HD25:

Nate Shannon (D, Inc)- RAISED: $35,991 ON HAND: $44,649

Jazmine Early (R)- RAISED: $1,100 ON HAND: $19
Paul Smith (R)- RAISED: $10,000 ON HAND: $5,361
Adam Wiley (R)- RAISED: $6,710 ON HAND: $2,598

@CNalysis Rating: Likely D

This Trump+9.5/Whitmer+6.5 district in Macomb County is exactly the type of district that flirted with Trump in 2016 and then flew back to the Democrats in 2018 (The only D to lose it in 2018 was Dana Nessel, but only by 40 votes!)

Shannon is in a pretty good position here

#HD38:

Kelly Breen (D)- RAISED: $15,713 ON HAND: $2,307
Megan McAllister (D)- RAISED: $13,362 ON HAND: $12,257

Sreenivas Cherukuri (R)- RAISED: $101,725 ON HAND: $65,609
Krista Spencer (R)- N/A
Chase Thurner (R)- RAISED: $4,010 ON HAND: $17,635

@CNalysis Rating: Toss-Up

This is an open-R held seat in Novi that voted for Trump by 4 and Whitmer by 6, but just eye-popping numbers from Cherukuri here. He's probably the best bet for Republicans to keep this seat, just judging on fundraising numbers.

#HD39:

Julia Pulver (D)- RAISED: $95,949 ON HAND: $51,765
Ryan Berman (R, Inc)- RAISED: $38,805 ON HAND: $65,837

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+4/Whitmer+7 district in Oakland County voted for pretty much every Democrat (aside from the State House) in 2018 and Pulver is raising some eye-popping numbers here...

I have been informed that Cherukuri's fundraising is self-funding, so take what you want from that!

#HD41:

Padma Kuppa (D, Inc)- RAISED: $101,473 ON HAND: $150,264

Evan Agnello (R)- RAISED: $22,105 ON HAND: $10,732
Andrew Sosnoski (R)- RAISED: $7,095 ON HAND: $3,578

@CNalysis Rating: Lean D

This Clinton+1.4/Whitmer+10 seat in Troy seems to be pretty safe in Padma Kuppa's hands. She's handily out-raising her Republican opponents.

#HD45:

Barb Anness (D)- RAISED: $37,390 ON HAND: $15,309
Brendan Johnson (D)- RAISED: $39,008 ON HAND: $20,628

Mark Tisdel (R)- RAISED: $23,255 ON HAND: $32,225

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+8/Whitmer+0.4 seat in Rochester/Rochester Hills is open thanks to a term-limited incumbent and the Dems are doing really good in the money department. Watch out for this seat flipping, especially if suburban polarization continues to happen here.

#HD48:

Sheryl Kennedy (D, Inc)- RAISED: $50,888 ON HAND: $41,112

David Martin (R)- RAISED: $10,909 ON HAND: $5,873
Sherri Cross (R)- RAISED: $1,252 ON HAND: $89

@CNalysis Rating: Likely D

Kennedy is facing a pretty decent opponent in Genesee County Commissioner David Martin, but Kennedy has a big fundraising advantage in this Trump+9/Whitmer+9 district in northern Genessee County.

#HD50:

Tim Sneller (D, Inc)- RAISED: $17,245 ON HAND: $23,177

Christina Fitchett-Hickson (R)- N/A
Lynne Freiberger (R)- N/A
Lynn Huckee (R)- N/A (Thanks HD-50 Republicans, big help here!)

@CNalysis Rating: Likely D

This Trump+0.7/Whitmer+15 district in southern Genesee County seems like it'll stay in Sneller's hands. I'd be much more sure of that if the Republican candidates filed their dang pre-primary reports though.

#HD61:

Christine Morse (D)- RAISED: $115,027 ON HAND: $98,818

Tom Graham (R)- RAISED: $5,898 ON HAND: $711
Bronwyn Haltom (R)- RAISED: $116,997 ON HAND: $181,520

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt D (FLIP)

This is shaping up to be one of Michigan's most hotly contested State House elections, which Democrats having a slight edge in this Clinton+4/Whitmer+11 district in the Kalamazoo suburbs.

#HD62:

Jim Haadsma (D, Inc)- RAISED: $59,621 ON HAND: $83,825

Chad Baase (R)- N/A
Michelle Gregoire (R)- RAISED: $2,983 ON HAND: $2,983
Dave Morgan (R)- RAISED: $200 ON HAND: $3,238

@CNalysis Rating: Lean D

This Battle Creek-area district that went to Trump by 2 and Whitmer by 7 isn't looking so hot for Republicans (who held this seat before 2018). Their fundraising is really paltry, especially compared to Haadsma's.

#HD66:

Abigail Wheeler (D)- RAISED: $23,944 ON HAND: $22,067
Beth Griffin (R, Inc)- RAISED: $31,125 ON HAND: $61,900

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+13/Schuette+4 district that covers mostly Van Buren County doesn't seem like a top tier flip opportunity for Dems, but their fundraising there is kinda close, which keeps this race somewhat on the board.

#HD71:

Angela Witwer (D, Inc)- RAISED: $78,361 ON HAND: $143,751

Christine Barnes (R)- RAISED: $4,797 ON HAND: $1,544
Gina Johnsen (R)- RAISED: $22,589 ON HAND: $24,548

@CNalysis Rating: Lean D

This district, which covers most of Eaton County, went to Trump by 2.5 and Whitmer by 11. Freshman State Representative Angela Witwer appears to be in very good position here. Her 2018 opponent (Barnes) only raised about 5K!

#HD72:

Cade Wilson (D)- RAISED: $7,779 ON HAND: $4,878
Lily Cheng-Schulting (D)- RAISED: $5,240 ON HAND: $1,052

Steve Johnson (R, Inc)- RAISED: $6,610 ON HAND: $40,769

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+9/Schuette+5 district in the southern Grand Rapids suburbs doesn't look like an amazing flip opportunity, but the Republican incumbent here is not really fundraising that well.

#HD79:

Chokwe Pitchford (D)- RAISED: $33,355 ON HAND: $24,303
Pauline Wendzel (R, Inc)- RAISED: $42,430 ON HAND: $62,273

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+8/Schuette+3 district in the Benton Harbor area remains right at the edge of the board for Democrats. Not really a top-tier opportunity, but it's certainly on the board nonetheless.

#HD91:

Brian Hosticka (D)- RAISED: $35,379 ON HAND: $31,651
Greg VanWoerkom (R, Inc)- RAISED: $44,735 ON HAND: $91,417

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This district, which covers all of Muskegon County minus the city of Muskegon, went to Trump by 15 and Schuette by 3, so there is some potential for the crossover vote here. However, VanWoerkom did almost get Trump's numbers here in 2018, so he's going to be hard to beat

#HD93:

Muhammad Rais (D)- N/A
Graham Filler (R, Inc)- RAISED: $37,795 ON HAND: $26,728

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+16/Schuette+1 district in Gratiot/Clinton Counties was kinda close in 2018 (Filler won by 8), so it's going to be interesting to see if this district stays somewhat competitive.

#HD96:

Brian Elder (D, Inc)- RAISED: $32,543 ON HAND: $61,508

Allen Bauer (R)- RAISED: $265 ON HAND: $132
Timothy Beson (R)- RAISED: $2,113 ON HAND: $646
Martin Blank (R)- RAISED: $29,700 ON HAND: $5,512

@CNalysis Rating: Likely D

This Trump+8/Whitmer+7 district in Bay City is a perfect example of a district that might be trending away from Democrats on a national level, but local Dems are still strong. Brian Elder is no exception to that rule here.

#HD98:

Sarah Schulz (D)- RAISED: $80,681 ON HAND: $96,825
Annette Glenn (R, Inc)- RAISED: $72,974 ON HAND: $125,277

@CNalysis Rating: Tilt R

This Trump+19/Schuette+10 district in the Midland area doesn't seem like a battleground district on paper, but Schulz's amazing fundraising and Glenn's close 2018 win (she won by 4) makes this a race to really keep an eye on.

#HD99:

Randall Doyle (D)- N/A
John Zang (D)- RAISED: $5,406 ON HAND: $2,166

Roger Hauck (R, Inc)- RAISED: $15,345 ON HAND: $65,666

@CNalysis Rating: Likely R

This Trump+12/Schuette+1 district is anchored by the college city of Mount Pleasant (Central Michigan University), so this one may be moved off the board depending on how the pandemic effects college voting.

#HD104:

Dan O'Neil (D)- RAISED: $208,230 ON HAND: $176,771

Heather Cerone (R)- RAISED: $9,875 ON HAND: $8,911
John Roth (R)- RAISED: $13,445 ON HAND: $4,007

@CNalysis Rating: Toss-Up

Dan O'Neil came very close in 2018 in this Trump+12.5/Schuette+2 district in Traverse City, so now that it's an open seat, he's in a much better position to win. It also helps that his challengers are essentially raising pennies, at least compared to his war chest.

And finally...

#HD110:

Lawrence Dale (D)- RAISED: $69 ON HAND: $66
Janet Metsa (D)- RAISED: $13,750 ON HAND: $2,287
Casey VerBerkmoes (D)- N/A

Gregory Markkanen (R, Inc)- RAISED: $9,925 ON HAND: $39,608

@CNalysis Rating: Lean R

This Trump+19/Schuette+6 seat in the Upper Peninsula was held by Democrats before Markkanen flipped it in 2018. Janet Metsa out-raising him has to give some UP Dems hope!

And that's it for tonight! I'll be back tomorrow to start Minnesota, but until then, stay excellent!

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