The APA, CDC, and most media are making homogeneous plans to address heterogeneous challenges;
We shouldn't seek intellectually thin, one-size-fits-all solutions.
economist.com/leaders/2020/0…
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cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
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Kauai, with no almost no cases, should send the kids to school.
kauai.gov/covid-19
Houston should probably hold off for a while.
google.com/search?ei=lmYg…
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nytimes.com/2020/07/30/opi…
Studies suggest simple cotton masks are effective at blocking infected droplets but offer less protection from aerosolized concentrations of the virus over a period of hours in a confined space.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Think of all of these school mitigations as SPF 10 – Good for some protection but not long exposure.
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We should remember that this virus moves *really* fast.
Mass. shut down in March with <100 cases/day. Even with a near-total shutdown, new daily cases grew from 100 to 1,000+ within a week.
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nytimes.com/2020/03/18/hea…
Two weeks is a lifetime of risk with exponential virus growth.
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thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-s…
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Do you like those odds for your child?
abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-1…
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Data from a YMCA in NYC seems to support that:
insider.com/how-the-ymca-c…
However, an NIH researcher admits we don’t have enough data to make sweeping conclusions:
smithsonianmag.com/science-nature…
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It’s also an interesting signal that dozens of medical experts seem ambivalent about the prospect of sending their kids back to class:
cnbc.com/2020/07/26/sho…
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The 1st filter should be local conditions. If a county has a meaningful concentration of cases, e.g. >100/day & a rising rate, perhaps school should be closed. If a county has <20 cases/day & the rate is declining, return to school is much safer.
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nytimes.com/2020/07/18/hea…
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Again, one size doesn’t fit all.
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cdc.gov/coronavirus/20….
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Political concerns shouldn’t be the driving factor, but they are arguably the most influential at this point. We should try to change that conversation before political pressure drives bad outcomes.
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Most COVID back-to-school dialogue is simplistic, ends with one-size-fits-all conclusions, and it shouldn’t. What’s your take?
/end