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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
@aaronsojourner
Jul 31, 2020 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Pres. Hoover's politics & policies of austerity helped create the Great Depression. The GOP seems committed to repeating these mistakes.

It's really 30 million unemployed, including the 12 million on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and other programs.
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf Image
Thread
The federal government commendably invested in Americans economically through the beginning of this crisis.

We've let the virus spread increasingly out of control & the incomplete recovery stalled.

There are 5 unemployed Americans for every job opening.
Tens of millions of American households lost jobs through no fault of their own.

For many, those enhanced insurance payments make the difference between feeding their families or not.
We do not need more-desperate working families, as $600 insurance cut will produce.

Desperate workers feel pressure to neglect harms they do to others & may spread virus.

We need investments that make jobs healthier, safer, & more attractive.
Excellent reporting @byHeatherLong:
"...as they see friends losing jobs and their favorite restaurants and stores closing forever. As consumer confidence falls, people spend less... That can lead to even more business closures and more job cuts."
Hoover-Pence 2020: Reduce Americans' Disposable Income 5%
Hoover-Pence 2020: Cut Consumer Spending by 4%!
How weak is labor demand?

From the establishment survey, the number of payroll jobs in June was 14.7 million below Feb.

The share of adults employed in June was lower than any month in the 72 years before April 2020: -17 million employees. Image
30 million American workers are relying on unemployment insurance after layoff, ~16 million had been employees (DOL ETA).

127 million adults (51%) are in households that lost employment income since mid-March (RIP Census #HouseholdPulseSurvey. Congress, please fund.)

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Jun 9, 2023
This paper is SOOOOO interesting. I love it.

They posit 3 types of Americans with different relations to the labor market. Folks in:

- primary enjoy steady work, any job search quick.

- 2ndary struggle to find jobs, move across U, E, N a lot.

- 3iary mostly out.
These bring the Dual Labor Market hypothesis home to the U.S.

Interprets short-panel linked CPS data combining:

- a hidden Markov model of observed transitions by latent type,

- a measurement model uses many rich CPS questions to assign each person type probabilities.
The primary market, estimated to represent 55% of American population, enjoys super-high LFPR/EPOP, super-low UR.

2ndary (14%): in LF 73% of time but unemployed a third of that time.

3riary (32%): out 91% of time. UR intermediate when in.

Heterogeneity that matters. Image
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
May 21, 2023
Amazon warehouse mgmt uses intensive, opaque monitoring as input to discipline, pay, promotion, & firing decisions.

MN just passed a law requiring employers like them to make such standards, incentives, & data transparent to workers.

Fascinating on a few fronts... Image
No one likes working to unclear standards.

But mgmt often prefers it,⬇️some gaming &⬆️ managers' discretionary power.

Even if mgmt uses clear well-justified rules, if workers don't know them, feel arbitrary.

Mgmt says, trust us. Many workers do not.
thenation.com/article/politi…
In a workplace with new tech-enabled, intensive, high-stakes monitoring, it's interesting to see workers demand & win transparency of rules & of data.

Amazon warehouse workers in MN have actively pushed to improve working conditions for a decade @AwoodMpls. This is latest win.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
May 20, 2023
What have Minnesota Democrats done with their new trifecta, @StarTribune? Lots.
startribune.com/recreational-m…
thenation.com/article/politi…
Read 25 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
May 18, 2023
Lower-income Americans often need access to $ NOW!

Speedier payments benefit those most in need.

Instant payments, like @federalreserve’s FedNow coming July, would create billions in consumer value.

🧵my new paper w/the great @ryanmcdevitt
direct.mit.edu/rest/article-a… Image
We measure willingness-to-pay (WTP) for $ today versus $ soon.

Use transaction data from a bank that offers both bank accts (BA) & check-cashing (CC), unusual.

Usually, 2 services offered by different bizs = tough to leverage customer choices to credibly isolate WTP.
@springbankny was 1st new S. Bronx-based bank in 25 years when in 2007 when started as Check Spring Bank. Later I served on & chaired bank’s board.

Aimed to deliver financial services value to S. Bronx community, compete head-to-head with check cashiers.
spring.bank/about-us Image
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Mar 28, 2023
Wealthiest 0.1% of Americans saw 5.0% of their wealth disappear from the quarter before the Fed started hiking rates in 2022Q1 to 2022Q4

The next 0.9% saw 7% of their wealth disappear

In contrast, the least-wealthy half of Americans saw their (much smaller) wealth rise 17%
The price of Fed action to fight inflation has so far been paid mostly by wealthier Americans whose assets in stocks, crypto, & elsewhere deflated.

If Fed causes employers to start destroying jobs in the real economy, the price burden will shift dramatically.
This is how it started and the labor market has held up remarkably well. The Fed can break it though.

Hard-landing advocates claim doing so is the only way to bring down inflation.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Jan 29, 2023
10% of America's abt 155 million employees belong to a union.

+1 percentage point a year requires +1.55 million net members if employment flat.

In 2022, union membership rose 273K, 6X smaller.
Estimated +273K from @BLS_gov worker survey. Reflects net hiring by union employers, priv (+193K) + public (+80K) sector, & new organizing inside & outside NLRB.

Abt 52K private sector workers voted to newly unionize in 2022, eyeballing @KevinReuning's NLRB data. 30X smaller.
@BLS_gov @KevinReuning The AFL-CIO's strategy aims to organize 1 million workers over 10 yrs, +100K/yr pace.

That's either 37% of the 2022 pace if it includes all change or less than 2X 2022's pace if newly unionized only.

Is this under-promising to over-deliver?
reuters.com/world/us/us-la…
Read 8 tweets

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