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The recent CDC study of 59000 contacts showing 0-9 yo having low risk of spreading COVID was done

in South Korea in Jan-March 2020, when schools there were 100% closed.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
Just because 737max don’t crash when they are grounded does not mean that they are safe to fly without a fix.
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Barton
@Barton_options
Blind (with no evidence from data) faith in T-cell immunity is pretty awful for people unlucky enough to be re-infected.

Expect no intervention and underreporting, except for cases bad enough to go through ER.
Why?

When people take long-lasting immunity for granted,

family & doctors/hospitals all tend to brush a patient with mild symptoms off and ration testing (since testing is backlogged in many cities), until symptoms are severe enough for an ER visit.
This strategy may work fine for a 20 yo, but having a 40 yo going through COVID twice, both times without treatment until oxygen saturation is low, is not going to be good for recovery.
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Barton
@Barton_options
Reasons why three gorges dam is highly unlikely an issue.

1. spillway capacity: 80,000 cubic meter/s. inflow has been 32,000-40,000 cubic meter/s lately

2. normal peak water level is 175m, and current water level is only 157m.
Wuhan can get flooded, but that's hurricane sandy-level of problem for China, IMO.
How three gorges dam (TGD) works in a typical year?

Precipitation in Yangtze river watershed above TGD is very seasonal (see the chart for Chongqing (upstream)), so TGD loads up water (for power generation + navigation) in Sept-Oct in anticipation for the dry winter season.
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Barton
@Barton_options
1/ Science is often nuanced. Let's look at the hydroxychloroqine paper today. We can spin the data both ways.

academic.oup.com/cid/article/do…
2/ First, HCQ-is-a-hoax camp: no significant reduction in viral load in HCQ group vs control.

main problem with this statement: rtPCR is not highly accurate as a quantitative tool. even specimen collection introduces hugh variability.
3/ Also, remdesivir, dexamethasone were never considered effectively because they reduce PCR-measured viral-load. kind of an unfair treatment for HCQ.
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