I believe the last time a Kennedy trailed in a statewide poll in MA was mid-September 1994, when Mitt Romney had a 2-point lead over Ted Kennedy in a Boston Herald/WCVB poll
Also when then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was considering a gov bid in '97, he ran far behind then-Gov. Bill Weld, soon-to-be Gov. Paul Cellucci, and state Treasurer Joe Malone. (At the time, the Kennedy family was embroiled in several scandals.)
There *is* a February WCVB/UMass poll that's not in the RCP database that did have Markey up wcvb.com/article/poll-m…
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Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.
The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems: newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.