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Steve Kornacki Profile picture
@SteveKornacki
Jul 31, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
I believe the last time a Kennedy trailed in a statewide poll in MA was mid-September 1994, when Mitt Romney had a 2-point lead over Ted Kennedy in a Boston Herald/WCVB poll
Image
Also when then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was considering a gov bid in '97, he ran far behind then-Gov. Bill Weld, soon-to-be Gov. Paul Cellucci, and state Treasurer Joe Malone. (At the time, the Kennedy family was embroiled in several scandals.) Image
There *is* a February WCVB/UMass poll that's not in the RCP database that did have Markey up wcvb.com/article/poll-m… Image

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More from @SteveKornacki

Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Oct 13
New NBC News National Poll
(1,000 RV; 10/4-8; MOE +/- 3.1%)

Trump 48%
Harris 48%

Last month (post-debate)
Trump 44%
Harris 49%
NBC Poll: Impression of Candidates

Trump
Positive 43%
Negative 51%

Harris
Positive 43%
Negative 49%
----
Last month:
Trump
Positive 40%
Negative 53%

Harris
Positive 48%
Negative 45%
Biden job approval: 43%
Trump retrospective job approval: 48%

===> Trump retrospective approval is higher than in any NBC poll when he was president
---

Biden policies: Impact on your family…
Helping 25%
Hurting 45%

Trump policies: Impact on your family (retrospective)
Helped 44%
Hurt 31%
Read 5 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Sep 30
NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll of Latino voters:

Harris 54%
Trump 40%
---
For comparison, merged data from our pre-election polling of Latino voters in the 3 previous races:
2020: Biden +36
2016: Clinton +50
2012: Obama +39

And an average of exit polls and post-election surveys among Latinos in 2020:
Biden 63%
Trump 33%
documentcloud.org/documents/2517…
In the past 12 years, the GOP has made a net 29-point gain on which party Latino voters most identify with: Image
Gender/age gaps among Latino voters:

Men under 50: Trump +9
Women under 50: Harris +12
Men over 50: Harris +10
Women over 50: Harris +52
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jul 2
There'd be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out.
Comparisons would be made to LBJ in '68, but he never formally entered the race; just announced that he wouldn't run after an LBJ write-in effort only beat Eugene McCarthy by 9 points in NH. And he did that before the remaining primaries (there weren't a ton back then) and 5 months before the convention.
A VP nominee, Tom Eagleton, was replaced in 1972 by Sargent Shriver just weeks after the Democratic convention. But WH nominee George McGovern was already hopelessly behind Richard Nixon.
Read 8 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jan 23
Happy NH primary day!

Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Read 10 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jan 14
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
 
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Dec 11, 2023
New NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll:

Trump 51% (+8 since October)
DeSantis 19% (+3)
Haley 16% (—)
Ramaswamy 5% (+1)
Christie 4% (—)
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:

Trump 63%
DeSantis 12%
Haley 11%
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 2%
And there continues to be a significant enthusiasm gap between Trump and the others:

Supporters who say minds are made up:
Trump 70%
Haley 34%
DeSantis 30%

Supporters who say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about choice:
Trump 45%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 16%
Read 5 tweets

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