New NBC News National Poll
(1,000 RV; 10/4-8; MOE +/- 3.1%)

Trump 48%
Harris 48%

Last month (post-debate)
Trump 44%
Harris 49% NBC Poll: Impression of Candidates

Trump
Positive 43%
Negative 51%

Harris
Positive 43%
Negative 49%
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Last month:
Trump
Positive 40%
Negative 53%

Harris
Positive 48%
Negative 45%

NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll of Latino voters:

Harris 54%
Trump 40%
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For comparison, merged data from our pre-election polling of Latino voters in the 3 previous races:
2020: Biden +36
2016: Clinton +50
2012: Obama +39

And an average of exit polls and post-election surveys among Latinos in 2020:
Biden 63%
Trump 33%
documentcloud.org/documents/2517… In the past 12 years, the GOP has made a net 29-point gain on which party Latino voters most identify with:

There'd be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out. Comparisons would be made to LBJ in '68, but he never formally entered the race; just announced that he wouldn't run after an LBJ write-in effort only beat Eugene McCarthy by 9 points in NH. And he did that before the remaining primaries (there weren't a ton back then) and 5 months before the convention.

Happy NH primary day!

Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown: 1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:

Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
 
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8% Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.

New NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll:

Trump 51% (+8 since October)
DeSantis 19% (+3)
Haley 16% (—)
Ramaswamy 5% (+1)
Christie 4% (—) One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:

Trump 63%
DeSantis 12%
Haley 11%
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 2%

New NBC News national poll (11/10-14)

General Election:
Trump 46%
Biden 44%

Biden Job Performance
Approve 40% (⬇️1% from Sept.)
Disapprove 57% (⬆️ 1%)

Biden Handling of Foreign Policy
Approve 33% (⬇️ 8% from Sept.)
Disapprove 62%(⬆️ 9%) ‘24 GOP nomination

Trump 58%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 13%
Ramaswamy 3%
Christie 3%
Hutchinson 1%
Burgum 1%

The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.

The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2416… Meaning: she (+ Christie) is doing much better w/ independent/non-GOP voters (who play an unusually big role in NH) than with R's:

Self-ID'd R voters:
Trump 55%
Haley 18%
DeSantis 12%
Christie 6%

Independents/Dems
Christie 37%
Haley 28%
Ramaswamy 18%
Trump 7%
DeSantis 5%

Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems:
newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu… In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.

November 27, 1978: San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Dianne Feinstein announces that Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk have been shot to death and that the suspect is Supervisor Dan White.

A week later, the Board would elect Feinstein the new mayor. Feinstein was seen as a relatively moderate mayor of a very liberal city. In 1984, under pressure to choose a female or nonwhite VP, Walter Mondale considered Feinstein.

She was asked about it on Meet the Press two weeks before Mondale chose Rep. Geraldine Ferraro instead:

**New NBC News/Des Moines Register IA GOP Caucus poll**

Trump 42%
DeSantis 19%
Scott 9%
Haley 6%
Pence 6%
Christie 5%
Ramaswamy 4%
Burgum 2%
Hurd 1% Here's how Trump's 23-point lead compares to other leaders in the Des Moines Register poll at this same point:

New NBC New poll - '24 GOP WH

Trump 51%
DeSantis 22%
Pence 7%
Christie 5%
Haley 4%
Ramaswamy 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 2%

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General Election Match-ups

Biden 49%
Trump 45%

Biden 47%
DeSantis 47% Among Republicans: Positive/Negative view of....

Trump 65 / 23%
DeSantis 60 / 17%
Scott 42 / 6%
Haley 41 / 13%
Pence 33 / 37%
Christie 15 / 42%

Chris Christie, set to enter the race next Tuesday, probably faces the steepest hill of any of the '24 GOP candidates.

In this week's Monmouth national poll, nearly half - 47% - of GOP voters viewed him unfavorably, and only 21% favorably - by *far* the worst of anyone tested: One theory of Christie's candidacy is that it's not so much about winning as trying to settle a score with Trump and win back respect from those who remember his early Trump endorsement and staunch defense of Trump through most of his presidency.

Monmouth national GOP WH poll [open-ended -- respondents weren't read list of candidates]:

Trump 43%
DeSantis 19%
Pence 3%
Scott 3%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Paul 1%
Ramaswamy 1%

* * *
December '22

DeSantis 39%
Trump 26%
Pence 2%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Scott <1%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit… Favorable/Unfavorable among Republicans:

Trump: 77%/17%
DeSantis: 73%/12%
Haley: 47%/16%
Pence: 46%/35%
Scott: 44%/8%
Youngkin: 31%/8%
Ramaswamy: 22%/6%
Christie: 21%/47%
Hutchinson: 17%/14%
Sununu: 15%/15%

Our new NBC poll on cultural/social attitudes gets at some of the nuances in how people think about these topics and how difficult it is to nail down exactly where public opinion is on some hot button issues. For example: Affirmative action... In our poll, we offered to choices:
A) Affirmative action still needed/should continue as long as there aren't rigid quotas: 53%
B) Affirmative action has gone too far and discriminates against whites and Asian Americans: 42%

This includes 53% of independents choosing A. But...

New NBC News poll (4/14-18):

2024 GOP WH
Trump 46%
DeSantis 31%
Pence 6%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 3%
Ramaswamy 2% Joe Biden - Job Performance
Approve 41%
Disapprove 54%

January:
Approve 45%
Disapprove 50%

Polls are closed in Wisconsin and now the waiting begins. FWIW, last November we got our very first vote report at 9:16 EST and 10% was released by 9:30. And there's the first report - tiny batch of just under 2k from Waukesha, with Kelly winning them 52-48%.

Overall, Wisconsin as competitive and closely divided politically as it was a generation ago. In 2000, Al Gore carried it over George W. Bush by 0.2%. In 2020, Joe Biden won it over Donald Trump by 0.6%. But the composition of each party's coalition is changing.... One shift involves the Dems' 2 biggest vote sources: Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) Counties. They've both long been Dem strongholds, but Dane has gotten more deeply blue, which - combined with higher and higher turnout - has made it increasingly central to any Dem victory formula:

House state of play: GOP has won 210 seats; Dems 192.

There are 33 districts NBC News hasn't called. Dems currently lead tally in 22 of them; GOP in 11. (Some of these leads seem likely to vanish when all ballots are counted.)

Our model has GOP landing at 222, +/- 7 seats. * for ME-2 and AK-AL indicates that each is a ranked choice vote election

** for CO-8 is because GOP nominee Barbara Kirkmeyer conceded last night but NBC News has still not officially called the race

New UNH survey of "like NH GOP primary voters" for 2024 (n=318):

DeSantis 39%
Trump 37%
Pence 9%
Haley 6%
Pompeo 1%
Noem 1%
Cruz 1%

Last October:
Trump 43%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 6%
Pence 4%
Cruz 2%
Noem 1%

https://twitter.com/UNHSurveyCenter/status/1539627220745867266

*likely

PA update: With a few hundred more mail ballots counted today, Oz's lead over McCormick in the GOp Senate primary is now 977 votes (0.1%). What we think is left... * Per the PA Dept of State, up to 5,400 mail-in ballots, but "it is likely that the estimates include rejected ballots that have not yet been recorded"
* Appx. 200 military/overseas ballots to be counted Wed.
* Appx. 800 provisionals, which so far have split 154-154 Oz/McCormick