Here's my estimate of the number of true new daily infections in some of the most affected states, using reported case counts and test positivity rates. 
One can then combine these estimates with the daily reported deaths to compute what I call the "implied infection fatality rate" (IIFR). The IIFR for the US is currently at ~0.25%.
Note that there is a lag of about 4 weeks between infection and reported death.
Note that there is a lag of about 4 weeks between infection and reported death.
Here is the current implied IFR for states with more than 1,000 reported cases per day.
Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina all have an implied IFR of less than 0.2%.
Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina all have an implied IFR of less than 0.2%.
Last week, I explained that it was unusual for Florida to be only reporting ~120 deaths per day for a week straight, and that they should expect to report close to 300 deaths/day if they shared a similar IFR as the US.
This week, Florida significantly increased their death reporting, including 252 new deaths today.
The same is true for Texas. After changing the way they report deaths, 30% of all of Texas' COVID-19 deaths so far have been reported in just the last 7 days.
The same is true for Texas. After changing the way they report deaths, 30% of all of Texas' COVID-19 deaths so far have been reported in just the last 7 days.
Modeling these nuances is difficult because the model does not understand the intricacies of how reporting varies from state to state.
This is despite the fact that there is a national CDC guideline on how states should report COVID-19 deaths:
This is despite the fact that there is a national CDC guideline on how states should report COVID-19 deaths:
I've been working on a write-up that describes the methodology used in this post in more detail. I hope to release that next week. Stay tuned!
