1/10 Epi review of the week. Bottom line: some decreases in case rates in some states, deaths increasing, but even with case decreases, rates in much of the US are very high. We’re a long way from safety. Close bars or open schools safely? Lots of states chose to keep bars open.
2/10 Test positivity stable overall, decreasing in the South but still very high, increasing in the Midwest. Different trends from different labs but from public health labs, increases in kids especially 0-4, also 5-17 (gray, orange lines). Not promising for opening schools. 
3/10 Testing charade continues. We shouldn’t pay a dime for any test that takes more than 72 hours to come back. Every state and county should report the proportion of tests with results within 24 and 48 hours. What gets measured can get managed.
4/10 Emergency department visits for flu- and covid-like illness decreasing overall, increasing in some areas. The epidemic is cresting in many areas...but still spreading at a high level. We are a global outlier.
5/10 “Only” took 6 clicks to find this on HHS Protect. Oh, and it was “last updated July 23” - 8 days ago. HHS committed that this will be better than the CDC system, updated daily. Waiting.
6/10 Percent of deaths from pneumonia, influenza or Covid decreased but remain above baseline. More than 153,000 deaths, projections are now all over the place, but we know one thing: way too many, and preventable. Covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US in 2020.
7/10 Good info from NYC Health Department website: deaths by date of death. The long tail on this graph represents, mostly, lingering deadly infections. How much disability and pain “long-haulers” - people with long-term harms from Covid - will feel remains to be seen.
8/10 Globally, horribly high death rates in Latin America. Deaths per million people, cumulative (Belgium, which counts differently, excluded):
United Kingdom 677
Spain 608
Italy 581
Peru 571
Sweden 567
Chile 485
France 463
United States 455
Brazil 424
United Kingdom 677
Spain 608
Italy 581
Peru 571
Sweden 567
Chile 485
France 463
United States 455
Brazil 424
9/10 Opening schools? Easy. Keeping them open? Only if Covid is controlled and schools adapt. Closed schools mean closed economy, closed minds, long-term losses in child development.
10/10 Vaccine … encouraging data from preliminary studies, but most vaccines don’t make it to approval, most being developed use unproven technologies, and we don’t know if they will work and be safe. Most importantly, we must be frank and restore trust.
on.wsj.com/3183s14
on.wsj.com/3183s14
