Is France suffering a second wave of Covid-19 infections? The figures are worrying but still not alarming. New confirmed cases have been running at just under 1,400 a day for the last 3 days. But there is no new spike in hospital admissions or intensive care patients – yet. 1/8
Taking the last 3 days, based on official figures, new cases are running at an average 1,371 a day. Taking the last 7 days it is 912. Until Mid-July, it was 500-600. Santé Publique France says that “young adults” are most affected. More than half the cases have no symptoms. 2/8
Nineteen départements (counties) have now passed the “vigilance” level of 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In France as a whole, it has risen from 6.6 to 9.5 – just under the first level of alert. The level is rising in 70 départements (out of 102, including overseas ones). 3/8
The worst affected areas remain Guyane (228.9 per 100,000) in the Caribbean and Mayotte in the Indian Ocean. Amongst the worst affected in metropolitan France are Mayenne in the west (143.4 per 100,000), Nord around Lille (17.54) and Ille-et-Vilaine in Brittany (14.32). 4/8
The R or reproduction rate – the number contaminated by one case – is also rising. It has passed 1.5 in 3 regions, Centre-Val de Loire (2.27), Occitanie (1.86) and Auberge -Rhône-Alpes (1.54). But there is no sign of a wave of acute cases, possibly because victims are young. 5/8
In the last 7 days, the number of C19 patients in hospital has fallen from 5,720 to 5,298. New admissions have been steady at around 120 a day (but more have recovered). ICU patients have fallen from 410 to 371. Deaths are stable at around 15 a day. Present total 30,265. 6/8
The government is evidently worried all the same. Prefects (senior national government officials in each area) have been given the right to impose mask-wearing in streets and other open public spaces if they think it’s necessary. 7/8
Conclusion: the next week will be crucial. It’s traditionally a week of much travel as July holidaymakers come home and August ones go away. If the number of new cases continues to explode - and if acute cases start to grow - France could be in trouble. 8/8
