But ok, let’s address the tangent. Why did WeWork fail?
Problem 1 was that it marketed itself as a tech company when really it was a landlord that knew software.
I may be going crazy but that’s almost like branding yourself as a Tesla competitor when really
Problem 2 was that WeWork was led by a narcissistic CEO whom people saw as a visionary until things started to go wrong, after which he became irate.
Hmm, again, I may be crazy but that sure sounds familiar!
Watch this for the full picture.
Let’s be generous and say that they have a 30% profit margin over the first 7years/700k miles.
That would take 5.38 years to break even just on that truck alone.
I doubt Nikola could survive this, in their best case.
In reality though, 10 years is a long time in the modern world and...
Ignoring all benefits of doubts and favourable assumptions, I don’t think Nikola can survive even half that time!
Also, how is it still only $10bn? Has their order book seriously not grown at all for the past years?
Yes! Trevor’s narrative is one perspective but it is a perspective ignoring numerous counter-examples!
If you are a narcissist with a flimsy business model marketing yourself as a tech company when you really aren’t, you will probably fail like WeWork! IPOs won’t stop that!
16th ever Tesla Roadster? Damn! That’s cool!
See this:
And forgive me but what the hell has Nikola done differently from $4/kg to $3/kg?
Also, even at $3/kg hydrogen, filling a Tesla Semi is still cheaper!
Truck costs are probably similar at $180k
Depreciation over 700k miles for a Tesla won’t be much relative to the Nikola
Wages would be the same to start with but Tesla will
I will assume maintenance will be the same.
Insurance will probably be lower for the Tesla.
Filling station/charger CapEx will likely be lower for Tesla including solar + batteries.
Am I missing anything?
Hydrogen’s weight penalty comes in all of its supporting systems like plumbing, the fuel cell, the 9 tanks and the necessary battery pack too! All in all, this’ll probably weigh nearly the same as batteries!
Also, ‘hundreds of billions’ I don’t thinks so, Trevor. But if that is true, why is hydrogen not really any further than in 1960?
Well let’s ignore that Trevor’s definition of ‘a couple’ is ‘four’, Nikola has only done one of these things, the preorders. Even then, that’s far from guaranteed!
That said, making 10-20x more revenue on the same thing just means you’re hella expensive!
Maybe some orders are more like contracts but a good number, if not the majority, are not!
Trevor all cocky saying he will beat Tesla to market (like that even really matters) and Jason correctly says ‘you’re not actually building the trucks yourself’!
Love it!
Now Nikola/IVECO is stuck with an uncompetitive design whilst Tesla isn’t. Interesting. 🧐
Also, what I will never get is why on Earth Nikola is actually manufacturing the Tre *in the United States*! So dumb! 🤦🏻♂️
And ‘Tesla’s started to tell people they’re gonna start selling energy at a fixed rate for them’? Oh, have they? Just now? Definitely not in 2017 at their unveil?
Do some research for fuck’s sake!
How many times will I have to say, if you and another company have a product designed to satisfy similar needs, you are in competition! Even a young child can understand this very basic idea!
Even if it works well, having enough partners to make a suicide bomber jealous seriously limits your business’
Also, you lose a lot of margin. Tesla has learned that if you want to do something well, it’s best to learn how to do it yourself. And the result? Tesla is arguably the most innovative company on the planet!
Truckers earn usually up to $0.40/per mile. In terms of cost per mile, which trucking is all about, that’s a huge deal! Not a big deal but a huge deal!
A manually driven truck cannot compete with an autonomous truck.
Also, Tesla has a huge fleet dataset to convince regulators that their software is safe enough to be operated without a driver.
This will probably take several years to be caught up to, legal wise.
Whatever approach Nikola takes, they will not be able to change these near facts!
Death is coming for Nikola, no doubt!
Damn it!
I mean, I did the same thing to an extent. It’s an obvious thing to do!
Ignorant investors will like at the name and product lineup only and
What happened to that small business Coronavirus relief fund?
And next year, haha, I’ll believe that only when I see it.
These figures are incorrect and I believe he knows that! Cybertruck goes up to 500 miles, Badger goes up to 600 miles.
At full load that’s 250 and 300. Not 100 or 150 miles you liar!
Sure, a single cell is cheap but Tesla buys probably trillions of cells!
Also there’s no way the CapEx would cause an increase of 30% of the cell cost at Tesla’s scale!
Then he suggests what amounts to a big drone?
What really happened, I reckon, is that Trevor was giving the big talk as always and then got caught out and had to think on his feet and suggested
By the way, aircraft are only a tiny portion of emissions so Tesla would probably be best to leave this until when they can do multiple trivial things at once. (Or just leave it to The Boring Company)
Also, if they’re scared about you having too much control, why would they allow you to increase your shares by 16%? Doesn’t add up.
Why not just admit you wanted the money?
As for ‘just having to sign some paperwork’, I call bullshit there. I think the OEMs want some demand assurance and so far they haven’t got it!
Also, contrary to Trevor’s narrative, Tesla has been testing with fleets since 2017 or 2018 so he can fuck off with that nonsense and speak only for himself!
Though this would increase ’charge time’, I don’t think it makes sense. Trevor said it would cost more but given that Megachargers would have batteries anyway, this isn’t true or relevant.
However, I still think battery swapping is wholly unnecessary as charge time with sufficient power is limited by cell chemistry and temperature only, not battery capacity.
I hope you’ve had a good day, goodbye for now!
[End of Thread]