Thread by @ClaireBerlinski

It's possible they *were* headed to Istanbul, and even possible they were headed to a cathedral (the Russians having taken a great and displeased interest in the fate of the Haghia Sophia).

I trust Lukashenko's word like I trust Putin's. This story is total Matryoshka, though--

https://twitter.com/PieroCastellano/status/1289826267014070272

because Lukashenko could be using this to destabilize the election himself, right?

(You might ask: If they were en route to see a cathedral in Turkey, why would they go through Belarus?

Well, presuming they're in fact innocent tourists, or innocent mercenaries en route to destabilize Turkey, or innocent mercenaries en route to invade another country, they'd do it because Belarus, as well we all know, has conquered the coronavirus.

So their borders are open. Flights in and out haven't been cancelled.)

(For everyone about to pop up and say, "That's because hydroxychloroquine is legal there!" No, no. It's because they disinfected themselves on the inside with vodka. As Lukashenko advised.)

So I guess Moscow's claim--viz., "They were weren't en route to destabilize *your* elections, you potato-gobbling peasant dimwits, they were en route to destabilize *someone else's*"--is just as credible as Lukashenko's.

The story--as told by Belarusian state media--is amusing. State security uncovered the plot, they report, through an advanced and sophisticated algorithm. First, they spotted Russians. Then ... they noticed they weren't drunk. "Elementary, my dear Watson."

The video (on state media) of the arrest shows patches that say, "Our business is death, and business is going well."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1288454185260912640

(State media also reported they gave themselves away by "trying not to call attention to themselves.") belta.by/incident/view/…

Anyway, yes, it does perhaps mean that in these circles, "I was on my way to visit a cathedral" = "I was on my way to do a bit of wet work." belta.by/society/view/s…

But where? And for whom? That's the question.

Sleuths soon noticed from the video of their arrests that they were carrying Sudanese currency, a Sudanese phone card, and something in Arabic script.

So as DW argues, there are at least three possibilities:
dw.com/en/belarus-pre…

1) Putin sent Wagner (or the B team) to overthrow Lukashenko, who has gone too far and displeased Putin.

2) Putin sent Wagner (or the B team) as a loan *to* Lukashenko, who displeases Putin, but not nearly so much as the chance of a free and fair election that results in Lukashenko's ouster, God forbid!

By this theory, the mercs are on loan to Minsk so Lukashenko can claim a pre-election patriotic victory, or maybe cancel the elections altogether. Or dispute their results.)

3. Lukashenko, who is after all nuts, is pissing on his territory by arresting Russian mercs who are totally used to flying through Minsk, usually with his blessing, on their way to do their mercenary thing in another country.

And you can think of infinitely more!

Maybe Lukashenko's pissing on his territory by arresting Russian mercs who really were on their way to look at a cathedral. After all, the Haghia Sophia stunt won't have pleased the Kremlin.

Perhaps they were sent to pray there--to remind RTE who's who and what's what.

Who the hell knows. But if they *really* found those patches and the other paraphernalia on them (they could have planted them, too) it suggests one of the following:

1. They fully expected a friendly reception in Minsk as they transited through to destabilize another government, or they fully expected to be part of this spectacle--

--I mean, what professional mercenary travels through hostile territory carrying his "Our business is death, and business is going well" patch? That's just lousy tradecraft, and Russians, we know, are well-trained.

2. They really are that incompetent, in which case, we can all relax.

I hope that sheds light on the situation, about which I know nothing.