Grab a bag of M&Ms. Put them in a bowl. Let’s pretend that green ones are infected people. Pull out all green ones but a couple.
Close your eyes and start pulling out M&Ms. Check the colors. The more you check, the more clear it becomes that there are a low number of green M&Ms.
Close your eyes and start pulling out M&Ms. Check the colors. The more you check, the more clear it becomes that there are a low number of green M&Ms.
Now, add a bunch of green M&Ms back. Start pulling M&Ms out blindly again. You will notice that now a lot of the M&Ms you grab are green. It’s obvious that there are a lot of green M&Ms in comparison to other colors. The ratio has clearly changed.
Checking *more* M&Ms has not changed the fact that if there are more green M&Ms, you pull more out randomly from the bowl.
The *percentage you identify* of green M&Ms to other colors has to do with how many were in the bowl, not how many times you checked another M&M.
The *percentage you identify* of green M&Ms to other colors has to do with how many were in the bowl, not how many times you checked another M&M.
In fact, as you check more M&Ms, you get more confident overall in there either being a lot of green M&Ms mixed in, or not very many.
If you check a bunch of M&Ms and lots are green, then that bowl had a lot in it!
Just a party trick for your next call with a stubborn uncle.
If you check a bunch of M&Ms and lots are green, then that bowl had a lot in it!
Just a party trick for your next call with a stubborn uncle.
I forgot to add: as you talk to your chucklenuts friends and relatives about testing, Johns Hopkins provides a lovely state-by-state tracker showing positivity percentages of COVID-19 tests over time . coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/indivi…
