Have been thinking about the US election, and I think there's a real parallel in terms of expectation with what happened over here in 2019. (1/?)
By all the laws of electoral history, the Tories in 2019 were on track to win - more popular leader, more trusted on economy, polls looking good. But so many of those involved had been so traumatised by 2017 that it was really hard to believe.
Sure things looked good. But this was a new age. All the old certainties had been upended. There was probably something weird happening on social media that no one was seeing. Or a turnout surge among the young. Your rules? We threw them in a bin. Our rules now.
And then of course election night came and it turned out that the polls were right, YouGov's final MRP was a wobble not a slide, there wasn't some Mysterious Hidden Corbyn Surge, and lots of champagne could be drunk.
And this I think is where we are in the US. By all the rules of electoral history and polling data - except 2016! - Biden is a really clear favourite. But the anti-Trump forces have been so traumatised by 2016 that they can't bring themselves to believe it.
