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Spt diduga Pertumbuhan ekonomi di TW II -5.32%. Konsumsi RT, Investasi dan Export anjlok. Tak mengherankan ini endogenous variable. Yg menguatirkan adalah Pengeluaran pemerintah -6.9%. Artinya Govt spending yg shrsnya bisa exogenous malah jadi pro cyclical
Tentu kita paham krn ada banyak aktfitas pemerintah yg ditunda akibat pandemi. Tapi juga banyak yg aktifitas yg bisa exogenous spt Bansos dg BLT, alokasi kesehatan, UMKM, stimulus. Yg seharusnya bisa membuat peng pemerintah tumbuh positif
Artinya concern Presiden dan Menkeu soal penyerapan belanja benar2 memang issue yg harus diselesaikan. Jika belanja tdk bisa dieksekusi maka pengeluaran pemerintah akan pro cyclical.
Dalam kondisi dimana swasta dan rumah tangga terpukul, belanja pemerintah yg kontraktif tak menolong ekonomi. Eksekusi dari stimulus fiskal menjadi kunci bila ingin ada pemulihan di TW III.
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