Thread by @HBoushey

Long thread on upcoming #JobsDay—

This Friday, BLS will release new data showing how many jobs were gained—or lost—in July. This data is critical for understanding whether the economy is in recovery or if it’s stalling.

The forecasts are mixed.
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We expect weak data on the jobs front because of the rise in covid cases across the country, which has led consumers to stay home and policymakers to enforce more social distancing and closures. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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As @ernietedeschi explains in this thread, forecasters looking at new data predict BLS data will show that the economy has either added or shed about 1 million jobs in July

https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1288476633041645571

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A study from the @stlouisfed finds employment recovery has halted likely b/c of rising cases stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…

You can also check out the Census Household Pulse data, yourself census.gov/data/tables/20… 4/

New data from payroll firm ADP show the economy added 167k new jobs in July. If it were normal times, that wouldn’t be too shabby.

But after losing 20.8 MILLION jobs in April and gaining just 7.5 million back in May & June, 167k is troubling prnewswire.com/news-releases/… 5/

Overall, this is not good news and indicates a stall in the jobs recovery. June unemployment was 11.1%, which is lower than the prior months, but still higher than at any time since the Great Depression. The share of the population with a job was 54.6%, also a historic low. 6/

With schools/daycares closed, parents are caring for and teaching kids while working or seeking work.

It’s unsustainable, and many parents, usually moms, find they can’t make their jobs work, finds @SasserModestino washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020… 7/

I’m also watching to see if women’s unemployment keeps rising.
In the Recession, men lost 2x as many jobs as women

Feb-May, 11.5 million women lost their jobs—vs 9 million men. By late April, women’s job losses had erased 10 YEARS of employment gains theguardian.com/business/2020/… 8/

Covid also continues to have disparate economic impacts by race. I dug into Census Pulse data, which shows growth in joblessness will be increasingly concentrated in communities of color.

This is on top of substantial race gaps in mortality rates usatoday.com/in-depth/graph…
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The uncontained virus has also made it harder for small businesses to get back on their feet.

@McKinsey found that the first 4 months of COVID-related disruption could result in up to 2.1 million businesses closures mckinsey.com/featured-insig… 10/

And @amandalfischer writes, “Recent research published by the @OppInsights team...suggests that the #PPP had little bearing on whether a business remained viable or kept their workers on payroll.” equitablegrowth.org/did-the-payche… 11/

Looking at who received funding, a survey by @ColorofChange & @WeareUnidos found that just 12% of Black & Latinx small biz owners who applied for aid reported receiving the amount requested, and 26% said they received only a portion of their request equitablegrowth.org/did-the-payche… 12/

This is particularly troubling given that small businesses owned by Black & Latinx entrepreneurs are more likely to be in industries highly impacted by COVID—meaning they’re more likely to need this bridge funding than those that are more insulated
mckinsey.com/industries/pub…
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Lastly, if the economy doesn’t add significant new jobs in July, this will further stress state budgets as tax revenues remain low or fall, and it will dampen the ability of consumers to begin spending again. /end npr.org/2020/08/03/893…