A few thoughts on #TNSen from a native Tennessean: I think it's going to be close between Hagerty -- who started out as the heavy favorite thanks to Trump's endorsement -- and Sethi. This has been the most negative campaign here in TN I can ever remember
Both Sethi & Hagerty are campaigning as though they'd be a major departure from Lamar! and previous TN Sens, like Corker, Frist, Baker. But what sources in the state told me is this isn't really a natural position for either man
Hagerty is more of a business-type moderate deep down most think. He's run fast away from Romney, who was once a close frient. And I've been hearing Sethi's name as a possible candidate for several years, as a Frist-type candidate -- both surgeons who wrote a book together
But it's indicative of how Tennessee's GOP electorate has changed. The seeds were even there in 2014, when Lamar! won a closer-than-expected primary challenge from an underfunded challenger, and even lost his native Blount County
"Hagerty has just wrapped Trump around him until he's like a boa constrictor," one longtime TN GOP strategist told me. "But Sethi has really surged in the last month or so like wildfire. I don't know that I've ever seen anything like it. He's the little engine that could."
This race is going to be won here in East Tennessee. Both candidates + their allies have spent the most here, but Hagerty combined has outspent Sethi in each of the state's 3 geographical areas. But don't count out West TN rural areas either, where Hagerty has outspent Sethi 2-1
Sethi has most of Gov. Bill Lee's team working from him, who benefited from a 3-way 2018 primary where Black & Boyd attacked each other. But a 2-way race (rarer in TN primaries) isn't the same beast. Hagerty has Blackburn's team working for him, but she didn't have a real primary
And both candidates have campaigned as though there isn't a pandemic really. Sethi -- a doctor -- hasn't regularly worn masks when interacting with voters and Hagerty held indoor events w/o masks or social distancing. Even w/a doctor running, COVID is deeply politicized
Sethi has the momentum in #TNSen but the fundametals probably still favor Hagerty. But I think it will be very close.
