1/ India has an opportunity to play a role on the global stage and flip the recent events on its head. But it requires imagination, courage & political will.
@narendramodi can invite Zelensky & Putin for a summit in New Delhi, and offer to send peacekeeping troops.
2/ Just a couple of days before Modi meets Putin at the SCO summit in China, Zelensky called him. Likely with a message.
Modi has been speaking to both Zelensky and Putin — and in the past has passed messages back and forth between the two leaders.
3/ Trump has slapped 50% tariffs on India, accusing it of aiding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The US says “the road to peace lies through New Delhi” — a false and unfair allegation that even branded Russia’s Ukraine war as “Modi’s war.”
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Allegations claim India is "profiteering" from Russian oil by buying cheap, refining, and exporting at a premium. But the data tells a nuanced truth. Let’s look at actual company-level crude import and export numbers (Aug 2024–Aug 2025):
2/ Reliance imported $12.84B of Russian crude (41% of its total import), exporting $28.38B of refined petroleum. Europe and US were major beneficiaries, purchasing over $10B combined! Even accounting for conversion value, Reliance exported far more than its Russian imports.
3/ Indian exports of refined petroleum are not excessive compared to pre-war years (as i tweeted yesterday) —so "profiteering" charges ignore reality.
Trump’s Bankruptcy Diplomacy – and Why It’s a Strategic Disaster
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1/ Trump has filed for corporate bankruptcy six times under Chapter 11.
He has openly bragged about using these bankruptcies strategically — to restructure debt, shed obligations, and tilt negotiations in his favor.
What he applies to his businesses, he now seems to apply to US foreign and trade policy.
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Trump approaches bilateral ties as zero-sum transactions — not partnerships, but deals to be broken and rewritten. His logic is simple: “bankrupt” existing agreements, create chaos, and force the other side to the table on his terms.
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This strategy may work with creditors in court. But it breaks down when applied to sovereign nations with their own political, economic, and strategic imperatives.
Why India must qualify its NFU to cater to new realities.
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Ballistic missile strikes on cities have been normalised.
Russia struck Ukrainian population centres.
Iran on Israel.
Pakistan attempted a strike on Delhi in the recent war.
We’re entered a dangerous new era.
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2/ China has thousands of DF-21 missiles with conventional warheads.
It also possesses long-range rocket artillery—all capable of striking all Indian cities in the north like Delhi, Kolkata, Chandigarh, Lucknow etc
These aren’t nuclear, but they can still kill tens of thousands.
3/ India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system was designed to protect against nuclear attacks—primarily from Pakistan, for Delhi and Mumbai as the prime targets—as Pakistan projected a low nuclear threshold.
1/ Iran appears weak in this war — despite its ballistic missiles flying and causing damage.
Iran was strategically diminished, even before the war began.
2/ Iran had already suffered major setbacks:
🔸 Hamas was devastated in Gaza
🔸 Hezbollah severely degraded in Lebanon
Iran’s regional influence took a body blow before a direct confrontation with Israel, losing its force multipliers.
3/ Israel had clear strategic objectives — and executed them methodically. Degraded Iran’s proxies.
And since the war began, it has hit Iran’s nuclear and military installations. It has eliminated top military and intelligence leadership and Iranian nuclear scientists.
China, as upper riparian to several rivers, is warning India: Don’t deny Pakistan its share under IWT or we’ll do to you, what you are doing to Pakistan. Threatening to "turn off the tap."
This threat came even before India has done anything on the Indus waters.
China has already played its hand — and the irony runs deep.
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China is upper riparian of Indus, Sutlej & Brahmaputra.
But “turning off the tap”? It’s not that simple.
Most of the water in these rivers comes from precipitation within India, not from Tibet, controlled by China.
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Besides, China isn’t just threatening — it’s already been maximising water usage for years.
Without any formal treaty or obligation, it’s been exporting very little and using as much as it wants for its own benefit.
There’s no "on/off" switch — they’ve been squeezing the tap gradually and selfishly.