Trade in Fasteners • Adjunct Scholar @TakshashilaInst • Defence • Geopolitics • Cottonian - Nec Dextrorsum Nec Sinistrorsum
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Jun 2 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
China threatening India over #IndusWatersTreaty.
Let’s unpack this.
Thread 🧵
China, as upper riparian to several rivers, is warning India: Don’t deny Pakistan its share under IWT or we’ll do to you, what you are doing to Pakistan. Threatening to "turn off the tap."
This threat came even before India has done anything on the Indus waters.
China has already played its hand — and the irony runs deep.
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China is upper riparian of Indus, Sutlej & Brahmaputra.
But “turning off the tap”? It’s not that simple.
Most of the water in these rivers comes from precipitation within India, not from Tibet, controlled by China.
May 18 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
#OperationSindoor
India-Pakistan conflict in the Information War Overhang
Thread 🧵
While India and Pakistan may not be engaged in full-scale war, information warfare is very real—and Pakistan plays it like a survival tactic and plays it well.
A militarily weaker Pakistan tries to offset battlefield losses with narrative dominance.
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Pakistan is a military-led state—devoid of moral compunctions—with control over media and messaging. This allows them to run coordinated info ops—fast, cohesive, and aggressive.
For them, losing on the ground isn’t the end. Surviving to fight another day is the victory.
They even manage to show themselves as victims rather than the perpetrators.
May 14 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
#OperationSindoor
Thread 🧵
People criticising India’s Rules of Engagement on Day 1 because we may have incurred losses need to understand the context - Day 1 was not meant to be an all-out war.
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Day 1 was like the Kargil war - strict boundaries - don’t cross the LoC. In #OperationSindoor, our objective was to strike terror targets, and the political directive would’ve been to not target Pak military assets. IAF’s hands were tied - by design and it operated with that.
May 13 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
#OperationSindoor
A thread 🧵 on potentially a serious shift in the Indian Subcontinent’s nuclear dynamics.
India struck the Nur Khan base, and probably Kirana Hills which is denied by India. Both are linked to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
But these were hit by 1 or possibly 2 missiles, which shows it was a demonstrative strike. It was not meant to destroy, but to signal.
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These were not large-scale decapitative strikes. They were deliberate, precise, and political - designed to show one thing - India can reach your most sacred sites.
And you can’t stop us.
May 11 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
#OperationSindoor
My thoughts as the conflict comes to an uneasy end.
A thread 🧵
India has achieved its objectives - punitive strikes following the Pahalgam terror attack and showing our strength after Pakistan’s attempts to target India with drones and missiles.
Our objective was limited and not to capture territory. We were not mobilised for it.
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After Pahalgam terror attack, India struck 9 terror targets in Pakistan and PoK. Importantly, strikes reached deep into PakJab, Bahawalpur HQ of JeM, Muridke of LeT.
Reports suggest kin of LeT & JeM chiefs among other terrorists were killed. JeM’s own chief led funeral prayers.
May 5 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Thread 🧵
12 days after the #PahalgamTerrorAttack, we remain resolved to impose punitive costs on Pakistan. At this stage, the Indian armed forces and intelligence key challenge is what targets to hit that will establish deterrence.
1/2/ Under “normal” conditions, terror launch pads are known—but they’re temporary. But these by now may have been dismantled. Pakistan was clearly ready with its military plan. They’ve followed their playbook, as I’ve submitted in the quoted thread.
Pak military posture post Pahalgam isn’t reaction. It looks planned and prepped. To be executed soon after a major terror strike on India.
Looks like they war-gamed this much ahead, perhaps in the aftermath of the Balakot strike by India in 2019.
1/2/ In less than 48 hrs after the terror strike - they announce a missile test. 500km range. East to west.
Looks like they were ready to roll. Because they expect an Indian military response after a big terror attack, after the surgical and Balakot strikes.
Apr 27 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Where was the security? Why was there no security?
Common questions after the #PahalgamTerrorAttack.
Valid, but here’s a counter view:
1/2/ Would you really like heavy security breathing down your neck at every holiday destination?
Would it reassure you - or spook you?
It’s normal to not have overbearing security everywhere.
That’s what a normal place looks like.
Apr 25 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
It’s a matter of when, not if India responds militarily to the #PahelgamTerroristAttack.
The question is—will it end it with one round of strikes or will it escalate, to a limited or full war?
As tensions rise a thread on my thoughts,
1/2/ If it stops at a limited strike, as I think it will, it will reset the redlines.
It will tell Pakistan: mass-casualty attacks will cost you.
Terror as an instrument of state policy will not come cheap.
Apr 13 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
🧵 of 13
I’ve been pointing out the problems with BIS and the QCOs (Quality Control Orders) that the Indian govt has issued.
They’re not helping Indian industry — in fact, they’re creating more red tape.
Why a product allowed in Europe may be blocked in India. Let me show you how Europe handles this. The difference is huge.
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2/ In Europe, products carry a CE mark.
That means: “This product meets European safety standards.”
But the company itself puts this mark — after testing and documenting the product.
The government doesn’t give permission. It trusts the manufacturer.
Apr 13 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
🧵 of 16.
Let’s talk about the “cash” economy some people have talked about — often cited as a reason to bring in more rules and stricter controls.
Here’s the thing: not all cash is “black.” Cash is still a legal way to do business.
2/ Yes, there’s untaxed income in the economy. But who’s doing it, and to what extent?
Mostly:
a) Very small businesses — often run by people who aren’t educated or don’t understand the compliances involved.
Oct 6, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Analysts noticed that CCTV cameras in Taiwan and South Korea were digitally talking to crucial parts of the Indian power grid – for no apparent reason. On closer investigation, the strange conversation was the deliberately indirect route by which Chinese spies were interacting with malware they had previously buried deep inside the Indian power grid
engelsbergideas.com/essays/private…
The attack was not foiled by an Indian intelligence agency or a close ally. It was discovered by Recorded Future, a company in Somerville, Massachusetts, which claims to have knowledge of more global C2 nodes than anyone in the world, and which it uses to constantly disrupt Chinese and Russian intelligence operations.
Sep 19, 2023 • 36 tweets • 8 min read
Canadian PM Trudeau accuses Indian gvt of killing a Khalistani in Canada and expelled an Indian diplomat. Relations going to be in deep freeze for the foreseeable future.
If there was credible evidence, Trudeau would’ve stayed away from G20 summit. I mean that’s a way to show all is not well, like Xi did. But he attended. Now in matter of days he has credible evidence. Doesn’t add up. Putting India-Canada ties at risk for his political problems?
May 20, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A dozen poor countries are facing economic instability and even collapse under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign loans, much of them from the world’s biggest and most unforgiving government lender, China. fortune.com/2023/05/18/chi…
An AP analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — found paying back that debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel.
Oct 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
International relations are and must be guided by cold pursuit of national interests, not emotions.
Many mango Indians get influenced by emotions when it comes to Russia, US, Pakistan, rather than being guided by national interests. Relations are a means to pursue national interests, relations are not the end in itself.
Aug 3, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
If there is downgrading of economic ties between Taiwan & China as a punishment,which is likely, India must look to gain from it as Taiwanese companies look for alternatives. It’s not just semiconductors & electronics, but a whole lot of manufactured goods. Make for India & World
OTOH, It will make strategic sense for Taiwan to try and deepen economic relations with India, which benefits India in terms of technology and manufacturing.
India is the only country which not only has commie Left, but also some commie Right! The Left rightly gets called out for its love for China. But they are irrelevant now. The love for Chicoms among a section of Right, potentially influencing policy, is a national security threat
Subversion to change a rival’s policy is a cheap alternative to coercion,deterrence or diplomacy. Why raise an army & invade an adversary when you can spread propaganda,pay off politicians, or dispatch internet trolls to achieve subtler but tangible gains? foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…
Mar 25, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Jaishankar on talks with Wang Yi 1- Talks on Ladakh: Still friction on going. Cannot say our relations are returning to normal. It’s not normal as long as there are forces on the border & violation of our agreements. (Did not sound hopeful either)
2- On Ukraine: Both sides have their PoV. BUT there was common agreement on need for diplomacy - impression of largely divergent views on Ukraine. 3- NO talks on Quad or Indo-Pacific 4- SJ raised the statement by Wang at OIC on Kashmir as objectionable. Issue discussed at length
Mar 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Figures maybe off mark but everything from the West can’t be dismissed as propaganda..Their assertion on Russian plan to invade was also dismissed. Russian failure of logistics, vehicles,maintenance etc all a learning for India.India has to do its own assessment on Russia’s war.
Good time to replug this by @StratPost on India’s VSHORAD procurement - summer trials held at the Mahajan range in India in 2012, Both missiles fired from the Igla-S ended up in the dirt stratpost.com/indias-vshorad…
Mar 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Those targeting India’s vote, some eg:
Saudi/UAE war on Yemen condemnable.India has 6 mn people there. Dependent on oil. Wants their investments. India balanced
Khashoggi killing-condemnable: India will avoid.
India abstained on vote against Israel to investigate Gaza conflict.
I dare say if there is a vote on Uighers, India would likely abstain against its arch enemy China. Statement would perhaps read - India supports human rights,is against discrimination against minorities etc, but abstain.
Because India doesn’t like interference in domestic affairs
Iview of @MOFA_Taiwan in @CNNnews18 Lecture from Chini embassy coming in 5,4,3: We want the rest of the world to understand that Taiwan is situated separately from China and we are governing ourselves and we are one of the top democracies in the world. news18.com/news/world/exc…
.@MOFA_Taiwan : Taiwan is not under China’s jurisdiction. The people of the Republic of China and Taiwan have no mutual jurisdiction over each other. In Taiwan,we have a democracy. The president is democratically elected.We also have a parliament that is democratically elected
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