1/ This thread pertains to #covid #coronavirus & #orangecounty specifically. Please take the time to read it, and more importantly, SHARE IT. This is not to create controversy, but share Orange County specific data, as pulled from the Orange County Health Department website.
2/ Again, this is the data you’ll find if you go “beyond the headline”.
Did you know that there hasn’t been a day when there were more than 15 deaths in COVID positive patients during this entire pandemic? I bet not, because we constantly see “30 deaths reported” or...
Did you know that there hasn’t been a day when there were more than 15 deaths in COVID positive patients during this entire pandemic? I bet not, because we constantly see “30 deaths reported” or...
3/ ...“54 deaths reports” or, again, my favorite panic porn type headline “OC smashes daily death toll with 64 deaths”.
None of that is true. Or is nothing shortly of extremely misleading. The dates you see for all the metrics are “date reported”...
None of that is true. Or is nothing shortly of extremely misleading. The dates you see for all the metrics are “date reported”...
4/ All that means is that the data was published on X day.
SIDE NOTE: I'm not making light of death. Each one is sad for the family it affects. But when it creates, in my opinion, undue fear amongst the vast majority of the American population, then I've got a problem with it.
SIDE NOTE: I'm not making light of death. Each one is sad for the family it affects. But when it creates, in my opinion, undue fear amongst the vast majority of the American population, then I've got a problem with it.
5/ Take a look at the three screenshots attached and breakdown on the following tweets...
• On the right of this chart shows the deaths (by day they actually occurred) across Orange County.
• On the right of this chart shows the deaths (by day they actually occurred) across Orange County.
6/ This way, you can see when the deaths actually happened, as opposed to the day when they were reported (see headline above the examples). Therefore, you can see that we “peaked” with 15 deaths on 6/24, 7/7, and 7/8. We are now almost 30 days past the peak in daily deaths...
7/ If you account for the lag in reporting and take the most current figure from 7/30, with 4 deaths, we are 74% off the peak. This is good news, right? Dare I say, worth sharing? cont'd...
8/ • Let’s talk case positivity and new cases on the second screenshot. Specifically, PCR test positives. Again, as you can see, based on COLLECTION DATE of the specimen (NOT when they were reported positive, VERY different), the peak in positive cases was JUNE 29th with...
9/ ...1214 positives and 7005 negatives, a positive percentage of 14.7%. Fast forward to today, well technically 7/30 due to the data lag time, there were 382 positive tests among 4079 negative tests, a positive percentage of 8.5%...
10/ So, with some basic math we know that we have 42% fewer positives based on positivity percentage, and 69% fewer positive cases outright. Again, this is good news, would’t you agree? cont'd...
11/ The last chart is actual hospitalizations for the County of Orange. The blue line is general hospitalizations INCLUDING ICU, while the purple line is ICU specific.
12/ Again, you’ll notice that we peaked for overall hospitalizations on 7/14 with 722 (again, incl. ICU) and peaked for ICU’s on 7/15 with 171. Fast forward to today, since there is no lag with hospitalization reports, and we are at 517 and 171 respectively.
13/ This means that since the peak, Orange County specific COVID patients in hospitals TODAY are down 29% overall and 31% in ICU’s. One important thing to note...to my knowledge, there is still no differentiation between hospitalizations WITH COVID, and...
14/ ...hospitalizations BECAUSE OF COVID. This means that if you are COVID positive, & are having foot surgery (food poisoning, giving birth, etc), this still counts.
So let’s summarize again. From the peak dates (and including a 7 day stop for reporting lag), daily deaths are...
So let’s summarize again. From the peak dates (and including a 7 day stop for reporting lag), daily deaths are...
15/ ...down 71%, new cases are down 50%, and hospitalizations are down 30%. Why isn’t this spread far and wide?
Now this is me talking, and my thoughts…we know hospitalizations are the most up to date metric. With hospitalizations down 30%, as discussed, we know...
Now this is me talking, and my thoughts…we know hospitalizations are the most up to date metric. With hospitalizations down 30%, as discussed, we know...
16/ ...(with almost 100% certainty) that deaths will continue to fall, even quicker than before. GOOD! Taking it a step further, we also know (based on the above numbers) that new cases are down, which will lead to even fewer hospitalizations.
17/ Closing thoughts…I’m not a doctor, I’m not a scientist, I’m not an epidemiologist. I’m simply a person who is concerned for our county, state, and country, and wants to do his own research to see what truth is hiding behind the headlines.
18/ But, you don’t need to be in any of the aforementioned professions to find this information. It just takes a few clicks.
19/ DISCLAIMER: This information was pulled directly from the OC Health Department website. Before you try to disprove any of this, please, do your own digging as well and then show me where I’m wrong. I’d love to learn. ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
20/ Thanks to @kylamb8 @EthicalSkeptic @ianmSC @justin_hart @JordanSchachtel @AlexBerenson @Hold2LLC & @boriquagato for sharing a lot of data recently that has helped me understand the facts, and not be consumed by the panic porn headlines. Thanks for reading. /End
