Thread by @P_Charles_ID_Dr

Quite a few people have been asking why the restrictions and mandatory masks in Victoria aren’t getting the numbers down more quickly. There are quite a few reasons, which include:
A thread 1/14

1a.A reasonable proportion of cases are still related to the Aged Care Facilities. This can mean positive cases from the residents, the staff, and also the household contacts of the staff.
2/14

1b. As we have seen around the world, it is particularly challenging to prevent spread within these facilities when there is movement of staff and residents throughout, and many moments where people come into close contact.
3/14

2.There are also a moderate number of hospital staff who are getting it. Some of these appear to be acquired at work and some appear to be acquired outside, such as from positive family members.
4/14

3a.Some of the cases live in households with a large number of people in them. It is not unheard of, for example, to have 17 people living in one home.
5/14

3b. Spread within households is hard to prevent fully, especially where there may not be space to isolate patients or to have the luxury of a second bathroom.
6/14

4a.There are still come community cases where people have few or no symptoms and hence don’t realise that they could be spreading it before they have found out their test result.
7/14

4b. Presumably there are still quite a few of these people who have not yet been tested. This appears to be more common in younger adults and children, who are more likely to be spending time at work (where work is permissible).
8/14

4c. You can spread COVID for at least a couple of days before your symptoms begin.
9/14

5.It is really contagious, as evidenced by the healthcare workers catching this even sometimes when they are using appropriate PPE.
10/14

6.The effect of any new restrictions is not likely to have any obvious effects on numbers for at least a week, probably more like two. The numbers that are reported today tend to reflect the transmissions that occurred 7 – 14 days earlier.
11/14

So, please be patient. We understand how hard it is for everyone to be stuck with these Stage 4 restrictions. If we didn’t have them, it is very likely we would be seeing case numbers per day doubling every 5 – 7 days like they were in late March.
12/14

That would mean we’d have been seeing more like 1600 – 3000 cases per day now based on how many we were having 15 days ago. The fact that we haven’t gone to those levels is a small win.
13/14

14/14