Thread by @marketplunger1

[THREAD]

5 Signs We *Might* Be In An Equity Bubble.

Thought-provoking piece from the wicked-smart fund manager Gary Mishuris.

Here's a thread on the five signs Gary sees in this potential market bubble ...
forbes.com/sites/garymish…

Sign #1: "Stocks are bought based on belief and not thorough analysis"

- It's not enough to believe. At some point your beliefs need to be backed by thorough analysis and numbers.

- Great resource for this numbers to narratives (ht @AswathDamodaran):

Sign #2: "A narrow group of companies or business models is perceived to be so valuable that any company that is seen as belonging to this group is valued at extraordinary levels"

Today's examples:

- Any SaaS business
- E-commerce
- Online retailers
- Telemedicine
- SPACs

Sign #3: "Company "stories" become more impactful than financial results"

- This one's tough because we go back to narratives and numbers.

- I'm fine with story stocks as long as you can provide numbers behind the story.

- Great article on this idea: macro-ops.com/herd-mentality…

Sign #4: "Charismatic leaders tell the faithful about a far-out bright future far removed from current reality"

- We know the @elonmusk and @nikolatrevor examples (too easy).

- But we can't forget @JeffBezos in the early AMZN days or Steve Jobs at Apple.

Sign #5: "Doubters have been wrong for a long time and are largely disregarded as people who 'just don't get it'"

- The most dangerous words in an investor's vocabulary quiver are: "This time it's different"

- Great piece by @MacroOps on sentiment: macro-ops.com/how-to-read-ma…