Peter Cundill is one of the most consistent value investors ever.

His Value Fund generated a 15% CAGR over 33 years. Turning $100 into $10,000.

He followed in Ben Graham's footsteps but carved his own path.

Here are six of Cundill's most important investing lessons ... 🧵 Lesson 1: Be A Global Investor

Cundill was Canadian but invested globally.

He believed, like Peter Lynch, that whomever turns over the most rocks will win the game.

The wider you cast your net, the greater the odds of finding extreme value.

That is very true today.

Allan Mecham is one of the best value investors out there.

He's generated a ~37% CAGR since 2008 while operating as a one-man shop above a taco store.

I read all his shareholder letters to find the Five Key Lessons from Mecham's philosophy.

Enjoy 👇
macro-ops.com/five-invaluabl… Lesson 1: Less (Not More) Information is Better

Edge is found in clear thinking/uncluttered mind.

Our brains only have so much decision making power capacity each day.

The less information you consume the more time you have to ponder the few critical bits that really matter.

One of the best ways to learn about the Copper Industry is by studying the Top 10 Global Producers.

I read each of the Top 10 #Copper Producer Q2 2023 reports so you don't have to.

Here's a thread on the most important data and themes from the world's largest players ... 🧵 1/ Codelco $CODELCO

• Copper Production DOWN 12.6% to 685kt

• Cash Costs UP 42% to $2.13/lb

• Reasons for Product Decline: Weather, lower grades, reduced mineral processing

• Reasons for High Cash Costs: Lower production, higher opex (labor + energy)

Goehring & Rozencwajg Investor Letters are a MUST-READ for any Natural Resource Investor.

They cover everything from oil to natural gas, base and precious metals, and agriculture.

Here's a thread on the most important insights from their Q2 2023 Investor Letter ... 🧵 1/ Upcoming Gold Bull Market: How High Will It Go?

G&R believe gold is radically undervalued today.

"Gold, relative to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, is more undervalued today than in the
late 1960s or 1990s."

How high could gold go?

G&R see $14,000-$32,000/oz!

The IEA just released its Critical Mineral Market Review 2023.

The report provides valuable insights into the large and rapidly growing Critical Minerals Market.

A MUST-READ for metals investors.

Here's a thread on the most important things I learned from the report ... 🧵 1/ Why You Should Care About Critical Minerals

• Green energy tech is propelling demand growth of critical minerals

• Critical Minerals market size has doubled over past 5yrs to $320B

• Success of green movement hinges on critical mineral supply

• Geopolitical importance

The Value Hive Podcast Energy / Oil Thread

I've spent most of this year studying Energy and Oil.

Part of that process was interviewing some of the smartest people in the industry to pick their brains.

Here's a thread on every Energy & Oil Value Hive Podcast this year ... 👇 https://t.co/7H1fhofmPYtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
January 27: Oil & Gas Crash Course w/ @Rory_Johnston

We discussed:

• Oil's volatile history

• Shale oil history

• Oilfied services

• Inventories, supply curves, and futures curves

Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ror…

In 2021 Citi created a new framework for analyzing Copper balances/prices.

Enter: The Call on Scrap Model

The Model focuses on the required scrap to balance the Cu market.

It has strong positive correlation w/ Cu prices!

Here's a thread on the model and how to use it ... 🧵 1/ The Math Behind The Model

Let's start with the mathematical model.

Equilibrium is: D = mS + eolsS

Where:

• D = Demand

• mS = Mine Supply

• eolsS = End of Life Scrap

We can rewrite the equation so that: D - mS = eolsS (aka Call on Scrap)

Thus ...

CoS = eolsS

One of the best ways to learn about the Copper Industry is by studying the Top 10 Global Producers.

I read each of the Top 10 #Copper Producer quarterly reports so you don't have to.

Here's a thread on the most important data and themes from the world's largest players ... 🧵 1/ Codelco $CODELCO

• Copper Production DOWN 9% to 357.1Kmft

• Cash Costs UP 33.7% to $2.04

• Reasons for Product Decline: Operational difficulties, lower production and ore grades, and mine shutdowns

• Reasons for High Cash Costs: Higher input prices (diesel & electric).

Fraser Institute released its "2022 Survey of Mining Companies"

The survey tracks global Investment Attractiveness based on:

• Geology
• Political Climate
• Public policy
• Taxation

This is a MUST READ before investing in any mining company.

Here's what you should know 🧵 1/ Understanding The Data

Some background on the data:

• 180 Responses

• 62 Different Jurisdictions

• 41% of Respondents were Company President

• 42% of companies were exploration

• 27% of companies were producers >$50M

Link to report: fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/…

The "Electrification of Everything" is here and it's driving the next Metals & Mining Supercycle.

Most of that Electrification growth will come from EVs.

This week, I read the IEA's Global Supply Chains of EV Batteries report.

Here's everything I learned from the report ... 🧵 1/ The EV Battery Supply Chain

There are six steps in the EV Battery Supply Chain:

1) Mining

2) Raw material processing

3) Cell component Production

4) Battery Cell/Pack Production

5) EV Production

6) Recycling/Re-use

Here's a great graphic below.

We're in the early innings of a metals and mining super cycle.

It's important to develop the analysis/valuation tools now to capture tomorrow's opportunities.

Here's a thread on everything you need to know about Valuing Metals and Mining Companies.

Let's get after it ... 1/ Motivation For Learning

There are a few reasons to learn about valuing mining companies.

First, not all mines are created equal. And not all valuation tools are created equal.

A DCF or earnings-based model doesn't work for exploration companies.

You need the right tools!

The "Green Transition" is here.

And it's one the most bullish events in metals and mining's history.

This month, the OECD released a paper on "Raw Materials Critical For The Green Transition."

I read it so you don't have to.

A thread on what I found most important ... 🧵 1/ Metals With The Most Torque

"The IEA projects that in the next twenty years the clean energy sector's demand for materials such as cobalt, natural graphite, or lithium will increase from twenty to more than forty times."

Demand for minerals will grow on avg. 4-6x by 2030.

"Successful people find value in unexpected places."

Zero to One is a masterclass on competition, startups, and building the future.

The book is valuable for all investors, from deep value to early-stage VC.

Here's a thread on my six favorite lessons from the book ... 🧵 Lesson 1: Don't Glorify Competition

We spend our entire lives competing.

Why? Because we've glorified competition as something to achieve, not something to avoid.

Companies do this, too. They enter competitive markets for the "glory" of winning a market.

Love this quote.

Hidden Champions is the best business book you haven't read.

It dissects the lessons from 500 of the world's best yet unknown companies.

These quiet businesses dominate their industries w/ 70%+ market share!

Here's a thread on the 7 most important lessons from the book ... 🧵 Background: Criteria For Hidden Champions

The book's 500 Hidden Champions met the following criteria:

• Occupied 1 or 2 market position

• Generated <$1B in sales

• Low public visibility

Average annual revenue was $130. Yep, we're talking micro-caps.

Onto the lessons!

Copper is one of the most exciting metals to study.

We're obsessed with "Electrifying" the world.

But we have completely ignored the MASSIVE metals supply/demand imbalance.

This creates one of the most asymmetric bets in all of markets.

A thread on the copper setup ... 🧵 1/ Background: S&P Global Research Report

This thread analyzes S&P Global's July 2022 Copper report.

The report's objective is twofold:

1) Understand future copper demand from ESG, Electrification, and "Green" Energy.

2) Determine how supply will respond to demand.

Let's go!

The End of Accounting belongs on the shelf of every serious investor.

Usefulness of financial information in investor's decisions is at an all-time low.

This book discusses:

1) Why that's the case

2) How it happened

3) How you can fix it

A thread on each section ... 🧵 1/ The Rapid Decline of Corporate Financial Info Relevancy

The book highlights several charts demonstrating the decline in the relevance of corporate financial information to investors.

Chart 1: Regression of Corporate Market Value (CMV) on Reported Earnings and Book Value

The Market Wizards books are MUST-READS for any trader.

Jack Schwager (@jackschwager) interviews the world's best traders.

He masterfully collects decades of wisdom into easily digestible trading tips, allowing anyone to up their game.

A thread on 42 Trading Wiz(ar)doms ... 🧵 1/ First Things First

"Be sure that you really want to trade."

"It is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don't."

Remember -- everyone gets what they want out of the markets.

Know what you want!

Competition Demystified is my favorite investing book.

The book shows how you can make tons of money from DYING industries w/ the following traits:

• Commodity biz

• Overcapacity

• Declining demand

• Govt headwinds

A thread on how to profit from dying businesses ... 🧵 1/ The Gasoline Additives Industry in 1970s

There were four leading players in the gasoline additives biz in the early 70s:

• Ethyl

• Dupont

• PPG

• Nalco

These companies produced billions of chemical products (additives) and made decent profits.

That changed in 1975.

We need materials.

Lots of them.

Especially as we "Electricfy" the world w/ EVs & ESG.

Fisher Investments on Materials is a great book for investors entering the Materials space.

Here's a thread on the most important questions to ask when analyzing Materials companies ... 🧵 1/ Supply & Demand Environment

• What is the product's supply/demand environment globally?

• For regionally priced goods, what is it within the firm's countries of operation?

• Have prices been affected by expectation changes OR changes in supply/demand equation?

Goehring & Rozencwajg Investor Letters are a MUST-READ for any Natural Resource Investor.

They cover everything from oil to natural gas, base and precious metals, and agriculture.

Here's a thread on the most important insights from their Q4 Investor Letter ... 🧵 1/ US Shale Growth Will Turn Negative

Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R) are convinced that shale production will slow and eventually turn negative.

The consequence?

"Global oil markets will have lost their only source of growth."

Tip: Study 2000s depletion theories.

Fisher Investments on Energy is a fantastic book for investors entering the Energy space.

It breaks down the industry into its 5 main sub-sectors and covers the most important drivers in each segment.

A thread on the most important questions within each Energy sub-sector ... 🧵 1/ INTEGRATED O&G, E&Ps, & REFINIERS

Revenue & Earnings:

• How is revenue divided between exploration and production, refining and marketing, or other divisions?

Production & Reserves:

• How is production split between oil, gas, or other products?

Hedging:

• Do you?