As Charlie Brown would say if he were an economics wonk, "Aaauuuuggghhh!" No, gold prices aren't rising because investors expect inflation. They don't. Gold is high because bond yields are so low 1/
nytimes.com/2020/08/08/opi…
nytimes.com/2020/08/08/opi…
Here's the 10-year breakeven inflation rate — the rate that would equalize yields on inflation-protected and ordinary bonds — plus the yield on those inflation-protected bonds 2/ 
The implied inflation forecast is actually lower than it was last year; what's happened is a plunge in yields, reflecting economic pessimism. Some weirdness in March, which I'll explain next 3/
So, in March there was a near-collapse of financial markets, which drove down the price of anything not totally liquid, including inflation-protected bonds. Hence a brief yield spike and fall in apparent inflation expectations. But it was just a blip 4/
The thing is, we went through exactly this story in 2008-9: rising gold prices without rising inflation expectations bc of falling yields, and even a blip in TIPs prices during the post-Lehman financial disruption. No excuse for being confused now [end wonkish rant]/
