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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 8, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Large protest today in Beirut days after explosion, many angry at government inaction, protesters targeted foreign ministry, parliament, clashed with police (dozens reported injured), abused effigies of Nasrallah, Aoun and others,

#لبنان_ينتفض
You can see it looks like it has gotten more intense and worse as day developed;
more footage;

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 31
Whenever we hear about military pressure on Hamas, which for a year was supposed to bring results on the hostage talks but so far did not; the "pressure" was always said to be in Rafah, Khan Younis, or northern Gaza.

Central Gaza is rarely or never mentioned.
This is not a random issue. Central Gaza has not been under military pressure. Hamas knows this. Gaza isn't that big a place, but central Gaza is an area that gives Hamas a decent amount of room to maneuver. It also gives access to Khan Younis, Mawasi, Rafah.
I think to understand "pressure" one has to think of it from the point of view of Hamas or someone from Gaza. Often its portrayed kind of in western terms. Outsiders look at Gaza and see a small area and think, ok, a third of it is under IDF control, so that's "pressure."
Read 15 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 29
I've seen some posts about Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system that is expected to be rolled out next year. The innovation is important to bring lasers to the battlefield to address certain threats. However, it's not a magic wand, it's a system that compliments, adds to others.
There is a cost issue here. The assertion is that lasers are very cheap to use compared to missile interceptors. This is true, but there is a hurdle. Lasers do not have a long range, they can't be used in all weather. Therefore to bring the cost down you have to fied large numbers.
Israel is a small country, therefore laser air defenses can be more helpful. However, think of the drone threat. One drone that is low cost can attack Israel from numerous fronts, meaning you need to defend a long coastline and long borders. Even a small country like Israel faces hurdles.
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 27
It's important to understand that October 7 changed everything in terms of how the extremist "pro-Palestinian" movement relates to what it used to use Orwellian terms like "armed struggle" to justify killing civilians. Today it doesn't even hide behind these terms, it openly celebrates the murder of civilians.
I remember October 7, 2023 like it was yesterday. One of the first things I saw online after I was woken up to the sirens from rocket threats that day, was the images of the Nova festival victims running and people posting celebrating the massacre of people at Nova.
At the time I didn't understand what I was seeing. Scenes of people running through fields and sand was what I saw. I didn't understand why people who claim to support the Palestinian cause or who hate Israel were celebrating this because I didn't know what was going on in the photos, videos.
Read 18 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 22
It would be interesting to get to look behind the scenes at policymaking, especially in the West, and the rise of Hamas and Hezbollah. Back in the 1990s there was an option to try to transition these movements away from their "armed" aspect and toward politics. A decision was made not to.
It would be worth understanding why the same western countries that knew that the IRA should put down its guns to enter politics, decided it was fine to quietly accept Hamas and Hezbollah as part of the political systems of Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.
Think about what happened. Israel left Lebanon in 2000. Instead of Hezbollah transitioning into politics-only, it was rapidly armed even more to being larger attacks on Israel. There's clearly more than just Iran behind this.
Read 25 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 22
Sinwar was killed on October 16. It seems his unexpected death could be leveraged and exploited to make significant gains in Gaza. The more time goes by it would seem that Hamas and the Iranian-backed axis may recover from this turn of events.
The challenge is that the IDF has been focused on a multi-phase operation in Lebanon, likely expected to go on for months or a year. And Israel is focused on retaliating against Iran. In addition in Gaza, the major mobile force left there, the 162nd, is busy with a month-long or multi-month operation in northern Gaza.
This leaves a key question about the flexibility of operations to exploit advantages. A key aspect of military operations, whether tactical or strategic, and also political capital in war, is to be able to shift based on changing realities on the ground.
Read 10 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Oct 20
Long THREAD: Israel will begin a wave of strikes in Lebanon that target a key financial conduit run by Hezbollah which serves the Shi'ite community.

"Residents of Lebanon, the IDF will begin attacking infrastructure belonging to the Hezbollah Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association - get away from it immediately"
This is the "al-Qard al-Hasan Association (AQAH) – the financial arm of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah." You can read some background here. fdd.org/analysis/2021/…
A senior Israel intelligence official said earlier today that Israel will strike the economic system of Hezbollah and harm the grip it has on large parts of society.
Read 17 tweets

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