Thread by @anlomedad

Do we still feel the bad fallout of global heating will hit Generation Greta, not us Boomers? Is our mind still fogged by tales of 2050 and 2100, far off, geographically and time-wise?

I know, mine used to be. Is yours still? Take this poll, and maybe another at the end of the🧵

It was exactly 2 years ago, when I first realised that it's deep the sh* is we're in.
16 sober climate scientists wrote that rapid, wide-spread transformation and individual BEHAVIOUR change is required.
Behaviour change? Isn't it enough to switch to RE? That made me dig deeper

So I learned a bit about carbon cycle, read a small book, started to follow cli-sci on twitter, read a few papers...
you all know the drill. Abstraction, abstraction, abstraction... It's a safe space and I need it once in a while.

Haven't read SR15, as in line by line. More like aimlessly grazing or searching for a particular term, reading a few pages...

about shfting climate zones,, incomplete biome moves, CO2 budgets, effects on humans etc.
What gripped my imagination most tho were the "Storylines":

My translation attempt: myworldwidewindow.wordpress.com/2019/08/18/sto…
(Btw: a "big economy"like Germany where people's vote matters a LOT...It is here that the climate saboteur Dr Merkel and her party set the tone since 2005! And we have no official translation to German of all of @IPCC_CH reports??)

So anyway. Ofc, I developed a climate compassion with beings, suffering from my ignorance (Boomer👋) and our continued Western apathy. I knew soon that we must reduce MUCH faster to mitigate it. But somehow, in my mind, the suffering stayed outside my personal probable experience

Little did I know: the climate change fallout had already reached our shores and had caused suffering here, in Germany. #Luebcke
I didn't connect the dots. I wasn't able yet to connect dots towards the near-term future. So compassion stayed with polar bears, Bangladesh or "Greta"

I wasn't able to connect the dots. It was merely my compassion with "far-away suffering" in terms of geography and time, which brought me to activism.

How then can less compassionate people agree to immediate, swift, decisive action?

Not by tales of polar bears or 2100🤷‍♀️

I realised: we need to convince others of near-term fallout on their very own comfy lives

- or we won't create majorities for what is truly necessary (and that doesn't end at merely swapping FF with RE!)

Will Steffen thinks so too: theconversation.com/our-climate-is…

(My translation attempt: myworldwidewindow.wordpress.com/2020/03/01/uns…)

Luckily -or sadly-the near-term fallout on our own societies and lives is real. It can be described, and evidence-based, too. One just needs to really LOOK and clear the mind of the foggy 2050 / 2100 or economists' €narratives€

We must look and describe it quickly to create majorities for what is truly necessary.
The description must come from scientists, from historians, social psychologists, political and military or "security" scientists. And they must write in our daily newspapers @ScientistsX, ..

evidence based in our daily papers, ie not a blog or unknown/untrusted media outlet. Maybe as a dialogue between climate scientists and historians. Or for example, a political historian translates these numbers here

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1284839166870724609

into likely societal impacts on *us*.

My bubble already knows some of what I see in our nearterm future here in EU. My pinned tweet relates to it.

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1292127632977530880

It's not "merely" bad for refugees. For opposition of these "Hitlers", too: for you and me. Or for family and friends who happen to be "lefty".

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1292130692432789504

Barbarism wd have no end this time.
Ppl not directly affected by the likely socio-political change: do they WANT to live like ze Nazi Germans -forever? They'd always know: their looking away causes suffering & horror. My gramp's soul split and withered...

Swift action can stave off SOME of the suffering and ensuing climate flight.
But knowing likely socio-political fallout means, WE can set the tone in this topic💪, swiftly prepare our housing capacity, our culture & citizens for refugees AND prepare ppl in originating countries.

Preparing future refugees & receiving societies is part of adaption to climate change. So we need to read about possible Hitlers in newspapers from [climate] scientists with white-coat-authority. It's not enough if Luisa talks about it in EU or if I do, as a no-name. @ScientistsX

(Don't worry about costs or labour market. WE define what paid work is. [Also, boomers start their retirement] Anyway, we have enough to do in the next 20yrs. So much in fact that manpower is one of the bottlenecks for being quick enough for 6 revolutions:

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1286617684436811778

)

Near-term fallout of climate change are likely Hitlers in EU & US. But we can swing that fate around with realism and non-racist adaption strategies💪

Another is unrest from rising food prices in EU/US. Yes🤷‍♀️
(Rahmstorf mentions synchronous crop failure🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺in his new article)

When jetstream causes floods/draughts in all 3 breadbaskets - like already in 2018 🇪🇺🇷🇺🇺🇸, what is going to happen when the national stores run empty? We import from other regions. But we're ~1bn ppl. So it'll be a lot of imports. Enough? Or hunger & unrests in exporting regions?

And that's not a question for "2050/2100", guys and gals. More like 2025/2030.

Does it matter if our imports cause hunger & unrests in exporting regions? We've got to hear from scientists how it falls back on us, too: unrests are a risk for geopolitical "order"and supply chains.

And every unrest anywhere bears the risk of right-wing influence or powergrab. Why should it concern you if you're climate-aware but right-ish yourself?

Rightwingers ditch climate policy🔥🔥Or cause "conservatives" to ditch climate policies to gain back voters. Eg
🇺🇸🇮🇳🇧🇷🇭🇺🇵🇱🇩🇪🇬🇧

("Conservatives" need to read about that particular fallout in newspapers - from scientists. So conservative voters might draw a red line where climate policy is concerned, and no longer accept diluting / discarding climate policy as their self-narrative or in election campaigns)

Poll at the end of the🧵:
did reading about it change your awareness wrt near-term socio-political fallout of AGW on your very own life?
Can you ask social scientists to write evidence-based newspaper articles wrt near-term fallout on *our* lives?
Write about it in the comments✏️