The most active @PredictIt now is VP betting, regularly over trading 1M contracts a day (bottom panel). Total Open Interest is 20.8M
Harris leads has always led. But she is going the wrong way and now under 50%. Rice and Whitmer are rallying. No one else above 5%.
(1/3)
Harris leads has always led. But she is going the wrong way and now under 50%. Rice and Whitmer are rallying. No one else above 5%.
(1/3)
The decision is expected next week
My interpretation of this price action, Harris is the default choice they will settle with but they are desperately looking anyone/someone else.
(2/3)
My interpretation of this price action, Harris is the default choice they will settle with but they are desperately looking anyone/someone else.
(2/3)
Remember our view ...
Betting markets aggregate all known information into one probability into a type of real-time poll.
Does mean they are right, but all the KNOWN information suggests these are the most likely probabilities.
(3/3)
Betting markets aggregate all known information into one probability into a type of real-time poll.
Does mean they are right, but all the KNOWN information suggests these are the most likely probabilities.
(3/3)
Twitter needs an edit button!
Above I meant to write "Does *not* mean they are right"
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Harris leading but slumping and now below 50% reminds me of a sports team that loses at the end of the season and backs into the playoffs. They get there but no one is thrilled about it.
Above I meant to write "Does *not* mean they are right"
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Harris leading but slumping and now below 50% reminds me of a sports team that loses at the end of the season and backs into the playoffs. They get there but no one is thrilled about it.
