Reports of security forces defecting in some towns. Does this mean Luka's grip on power slipping?
Well, not necessarily. In fact, can even be statistically expected.
Well, not necessarily. In fact, can even be statistically expected.
Note the town in question, Kobrin, is near Brest - one of the most oppositionist regions.
If Luka's real support at ~20%, & siloviks ~1 S.D. more pro-regime on average, then loyalties amongst them are basically 50/50. Though conformity keeps them from stepping out of line. BUT.
If Luka's real support at ~20%, & siloviks ~1 S.D. more pro-regime on average, then loyalties amongst them are basically 50/50. Though conformity keeps them from stepping out of line. BUT.
Add in regional variation in oppositionism, plus effect of filtering the more loyal siloviks towards Minsk, we could end up with siloviks that are 70%+ "dissident" in those places. And at end of the day, BSSR is not Best Korea, is not run on terror - some indeed start to defect.
But by the same token, this is not a guide to what will happen in the one place that matters: Minsk.
Ofc a regime collapse that solidifies in one region can lead to something - the Veyshnoria scenario. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veyshnoria But don't see that happening in Belarus.
Ofc a regime collapse that solidifies in one region can lead to something - the Veyshnoria scenario. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veyshnoria But don't see that happening in Belarus.
