Sunday night thread 🧵: over the past month, we've had lots of high-quality polling data from the nine most competitive swing states this November revealing very stark partisan divides on how voters plan to cast their ballots. Here's a look at the state-by-state survey data 1/
Arizona (CNN/SSRS 7/18-7/24): 76% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans plan to vote by mail, 13% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans plan too to early in-person, 11% of Democrats and 38% of Republicans plan to vote in-person on Election Day 2/ cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/image…
Arizona (CBS/YouGov July 7-10) 80% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans plan to vote by mail, 6% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans plan to vote early in-person, 14% of Dems and 35% of Republicans plan to vote on election day 3/ drive.google.com/file/d/1NdvAi6…
Florida (CNN/SSRS 7/18-7/24): 56% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 23% of Dems and 29% of Republicans prefer to vote early in-person, 19% of Dems and 51% of Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day 4/ cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/image…
Georgia (CBS/YouGov July 28-July 31): 50% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 28% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans prefer to vote early, and 22% of Dems and 46% of Republicans plan to vote on Election Day 5/ drive.google.com/file/d/1oa8SqH…
Georgia (Monmouth 7/23-7/27): 60% of Democrats but 28% of Republicans are very somewhat/likely to vote by mail. 39% of Dems and 69% of Republicans are not too/not at all likely to vote by mail 6/ monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
Iowa (Monmouth 7/30-8/3): 61% of Democrats and 38% very/somewhat likely to vote by mail, 19% of democrats and 60% of Republicans not too/not at all likely to vote by mail 7/ monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
Michigan (CBS/YouGov 7/21-/7/24): 76% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 8% of Democrats and 12% of Republican prefer to vote early, 16% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day 8/ drive.google.com/file/d/1Ohx4ni…
North Carolina (CBS/YouGov 7/28-7/31): 38% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 37% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person, 25% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person on Election Day 9/ drive.google.com/file/d/1jDu_IM…
Ohio (CBS/YouGov 7/21-24): 63% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 15% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person, 22% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person on Election Day 10/ drive.google.com/file/d/1Vbmv7E…
Pennsylvania (CBS/YouGov 8/4-8/7): 52% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 12% of Dems and 10% of Republicans prefer to vote early, 36% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans prefer to vote in person on election day 11/ drive.google.com/file/d/1CFgA4C…
Wisconsin (CBS/YouGov 8/4-8/7): 62% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans prefer to vote by mail, 16% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans prefer to vote early in-person, 22% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans prefer to vote in-person on Election Day 12/ drive.google.com/file/d/1HySmD4…
As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, these trends mean that a candidate leading the vote count on election may not win. This “overtime shift” effect has been documented by election scholars for years, but will be particularly pronounced this year 13/ businessinsider.com/the-candidate-…
It also means that we’re likely to see a lot of legal challenges in the days and weeks immediately after the election over which ballots should be counted or rejected, legal fights which could determine the results of a close statewide election /end businessinsider.com/contested-pres…
