Thread: Some observations about 2020 #TestOptional announcements:
It seems like the come in a few broad categories:
a) We're test optional going forward
b) We're test blind
c) We're test optional as a x-year pilot
d) We're test optional for a year
And, some hybrids, of course
Group a) consists mostly of schools who've been debating for a while, or who had the proposal in the works pre-pandemic
Group b) burned it all down. Congrats. I wish I'd been brave enough to pursue that approach
Group c): Good enough. Do your research, as you should
But group d): Let's talk about them.
They'll admit this class in spring, 2021. They'll open their application for 2022 in August, 2021.
That's a month before the first test-optional cohort enrolls.
Some of these places may have just rushed through a one-year policy to deal with the tyranny of the urgent. Maybe they'll take steps to make it permanent (or a pilot project) in the interim. Let's hope so.
Maybe they'll see the light in review; free from the straitjacket of tests and the limitations they impose on selection, perhaps the admissions staff members will make some noise. Maybe there are faculty on those committees who will feel the same. Fingers crossed.
But I doubt it. Part of the panache of working at some of those places (you know, the ones who almost apologized for going test-optional for a year) is the country club aura tests lend an institution.
Because tests mean wealth, mostly.
But a one-year policy essentially says, "We've made up our minds, and we're going back as soon as we can." Which may be next year. Or the year over that. Who even knows?
But perhaps there is some hope, distasteful as it may be.
What if applications go up 25% from very good students who wouldn't have applied because they're "only" at 1350 or a 30?
Admit rates plummet. Decisions become even less predictable. 80% of the class is taken in ED. Aid goes down. Everything else they want.
Thread: If people want to talk about public universities going out-of-state to generate revenue, just remember public education used to be adequately funded and mostly free for residents until this guy convinced people in California that was a bad idea.
And remember that access to high quality public education was most likely at the core of an amazing ramp up of educational attainment in the US (in 1940, only about 4% of adults had college degrees).
And that led to an amazing rise in wealth, GDP, and other economic measures in the US, post WW II. If Median Family income had risen just at the rate of inflation since 1953, it would have been at $44.6K instead of $92.7K in 2021.
Thread: We're hearing about male college enrollment again. And yes, it's going down. Is it a crisis? Maybe.
But there are stories beneath the data.
First, people often equate "enrollment" with "first-time, full-time enrollment of 18-year-olds." They are decidedly not the same. Let's take a look at my institution, Oregon State as an example.
Our total enrollment will be about 38,000 next month (we've not started classes yet, as we're on the quarter system). Traditional freshmen? About 4,600, or roughly 12% of the total.
Counselors are not happy with @CollegeBoard who seems to turn a deaf ear, and who seems to want to force high schools' hand to offer more free labor and space via School Day Testing, all in service to the Highly Rejectives. (used with permission and redacted for privacy).
This is what our HS colleagues go through to give the highly rejectives a teeny, tiny little more confidence in allocating their precious admissions slots.
Those institutions and College Board hoist the entire cost of their demands onto high schools and volunteers.
As indicated, it seems absurd when College Board (a nominally not-for-profit) had positive bottom lines averaging about $125M in the last two years available.
Thread: It seems I'm spending more time telling people why I'm not too interested in the Dartmouth decision than it would take to just put it here. So here goes. I hope this is the last I'll say about it.
First, I've long said that if a college finds value in the SAT, they would be foolish not to use it. I just ask that they do the research, which Dartmouth did. And the lowest-scoring students at Dartmouth end up with a GPA of 3.1 or something like that. Horrible.
I am--frankly--a little suspicious of analysis that shows the SAT is better than HS GPA, because you know damn well if College Board or ACT could make that claim, they'd have done so long ago. They've never even whispered it.
This is the result of the DOJ investigating the NACAC Statement of Principles of Good Practice, which would have allowed this if the student had not withdrawn, but would have forbidden it if the student had notified the offering school that they had deposited elsewhere.
The DOJ treated college just like any other consumer purchase: Suppose car dealers agreed the Subaru dealer could not call you while you were on the way to the Ford dealer to buy the car you had agreed to buy, and offer you a better deal?
Thread: When someone tells you about the big drop in high school graduates, remember 2014. Because by 2037, we'll be back to numbers like we saw in 2014.
What's really compelling is the mix: America will be more diverse, and because different ethnic groups have different college participation rates, that's the big thing going on behind the numbers.
And, of course, New England has known this for a long time.