1. The Belarus elections were almost certainly badly rigged, the result a foregone conclusion. When I did field research in Minsk, a former regime official told me that Lukashenko handpicked his margin of victory. Once, he had told his subordinates that he wanted 75% of the vote.
2. But in a dictatorship, failing to please the dictator is a dangerous thing to do, so his subordinates padded it. They told their subordinates that he wanted 77% or 78% just in case they missed the mark by a few points. It was a safety net, in case the henchmen screwed up.
3. Those subordinates told their subordinates that he wanted 80% or 81%, and so on. Eventually, the results came in: he won with 83% of the vote. The runner-up got 6% of the vote. But much of the more popular opposition figures were in jail or had been beaten by security services
4. Belarus is often known as the "last dictatorship in Europe." Daring to stand up to the dictator is dangerous. Belarusians deserve our support. Our governments must condemn fraudulent elections and put serious pressure on Lukashenko to leave power and hold a genuine election.
5. Here's a piece I wrote in 2015 calling on the West to do more to support democracy in Belarus. Five years later, and it still needs to (finally) happen. Words aren't enough. foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/09/the…
