On KSA, Pakistan and regional geopolitics ( A Thread )
"We have no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies. Only our interests are eternal and perpetual."
-Lord Palmerston
"We have no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies. Only our interests are eternal and perpetual."
-Lord Palmerston
State level Analysis
History
-Support during 90s sanctions
-Afghan War
-Gulf War
-Support in Wars with India
-Relations at their lowest ebb when KSA asked for Pakistani forces for Yemen
-Pivotal role in averting 2018 balance of payment crisis
History
-Support during 90s sanctions
-Afghan War
-Gulf War
-Support in Wars with India
-Relations at their lowest ebb when KSA asked for Pakistani forces for Yemen
-Pivotal role in averting 2018 balance of payment crisis
Nature of relations
2nd best relations with a strategic dimension since its inception
Economic Relations :
-3.5 B Bilateral Trade in 2018
-6.2 B emergency assistance in 2018
- ~ 3 M Pakistani workforce which forms a significant part of our remittances ( ~ $ 4 Billion )
2nd best relations with a strategic dimension since its inception
Economic Relations :
-3.5 B Bilateral Trade in 2018
-6.2 B emergency assistance in 2018
- ~ 3 M Pakistani workforce which forms a significant part of our remittances ( ~ $ 4 Billion )
Security
-Complete dependence upon Pak Army for training purposes. Routing of Saudi regular army against Yemeni Houthi militias lends credence to abysmal state of affairs of Royal Army.
-Some analysts contend that a nuclear umbrella can be extended to KSA
-Complete dependence upon Pak Army for training purposes. Routing of Saudi regular army against Yemeni Houthi militias lends credence to abysmal state of affairs of Royal Army.
-Some analysts contend that a nuclear umbrella can be extended to KSA
Systemic Level Analysis
Future of KSA?
-LNG and Green Energy surge is exacerbating KSAs woes by mitigating oil demand
-Energy self sufficiency of USA
-Depleting oil reserves
-Soaring fiscal deficits of Gulf states due to low price of oil as the attached graph indicates.
Future of KSA?
-LNG and Green Energy surge is exacerbating KSAs woes by mitigating oil demand
-Energy self sufficiency of USA
-Depleting oil reserves
-Soaring fiscal deficits of Gulf states due to low price of oil as the attached graph indicates.
As a result, foreign exchange reserves (~ 500 Billion dollars) are taking a heavy toll.
Hence, KSA is looking to diversify its economy by finding new markets for Capital Investment. This partly explains its intention to invest in China, Pk and India for oil refinement
Hence, KSA is looking to diversify its economy by finding new markets for Capital Investment. This partly explains its intention to invest in China, Pk and India for oil refinement
KSA tilt in Cold War 2.0
-America’s isolationist behavior in Middle East
-Arms deal with USA which is transactional in nature, not strategic
-KSA biggest supplier of Oil to China
-America’s isolationist behavior in Middle East
-Arms deal with USA which is transactional in nature, not strategic
-KSA biggest supplier of Oil to China
-With 400 B Iran – China deal, what does this posit? Will KSA adopt strategic neutrality? Will it call peace with Iran? Will it pivot towards Washington in its bid to deter Iran? Or will we see its traditional retrenchment in foreign policy? Million Dollar Question
-Now India comes into the regional geostrategic picture. It is inevitable that it will find itself in American camp. Since Iran has opted for China, it is most likely that India will further cement its ties with GCC in context of its burgeoning energy demand.
Where does Pakistan fall?
Given its economic potential, military might, nuclear weapon status, Islamabad is by all means a geopolitical bellwether. It will have to act as an ‘exceptional balancer’ b/w rival Muslim blocs while retaining its instrument of maneuverability.
Given its economic potential, military might, nuclear weapon status, Islamabad is by all means a geopolitical bellwether. It will have to act as an ‘exceptional balancer’ b/w rival Muslim blocs while retaining its instrument of maneuverability.
After a structural stabilization programme, our macroeconomic credentials have improved considerably; therefore from a strictly realpolitik paradigm, Pakistan is right in calling out OICs pathetic performance vis a vis Kashmir.
Leverage works both ways and for Saudis, security takes precedence over everything. Therefore, diplomacy must be conducted in congruence with our raison d’etat.
#PakistanFirst
#PakistanFirst
